That's one way to look at it, but not the only one. Look at the entire set of ch...

kgwgk on Feb 17, 2017 | parent | context | favorite | on: When intuition and math probably look wrong (2010)

That's one way to look at it, but not the only one. Look at the entire set of children. Then the subset of those born on Tuesday. Then the subset who have exactly one sibling. In that case the probability is 50%.