There are basic capabilities humans have, and capabilities machines have. Human capabilities are more or less fixed. Machine capabilities keep expanding.
About half of work done today could be automated with technology we already have. All it takes is wider deployment of the most automated technologies.
The current phase is not because computers are smarter. It's that they're really cheap. If a computer can do it, it will be cheaper than a human.
Next employment area in the US about to get clobbered: fruit and vegetable picking.[1]
I get your point but I'm not entirely sure human capabilities are fixed. In fact I would opt to say that we're the only species that has evidence of not being fixed in capabilities. I have no doubt that pg was a better programmer in the 90s than I am today. However if me now and him then were pitted against each other to build some web app I'm thinking I have pretty good odds. Human capabilities are their inate skills * education * available tooling. Education and tooling improve as time goes forward (generally and hopefully).
About half of work done today could be automated with technology we already have. All it takes is wider deployment of the most automated technologies. The current phase is not because computers are smarter. It's that they're really cheap. If a computer can do it, it will be cheaper than a human.
Next employment area in the US about to get clobbered: fruit and vegetable picking.[1]
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBcWZcjXr-I