If he did 30x a year, he must have been the best investor in the world?

btilly · on Feb 10, 2017

No, it just means an insane beta and good luck. Anyone can set up the lottery to create an insane beta. And luck, well, you know how that goes.

shoo · on Feb 10, 2017

you can't judge skill from outcomes in the short run if a large component of the outcome is outside of the control of the operator

see e.g. Taleb "fooled by randomness"

there's also a good "winner's game" vs "loser's game" argument, see Ellis - The Loser's Game: http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v51.n1.1865 (PDF)