Is there some general formula that I can use to figure out how much adsense a site makes compared to how many page views they get and the CPM?
I'm looking for something like: at X number of page views with a CPM of Y, the site will make Z dollars.
Any links to information that I should read to learn more about this stuff?
There is a sub-component of CPM when considering adsense and other forms of advertising, and that is your click through rate, and it's just the percentage of visitors who click on the ads. Many adsense ads only pay on clicks, which means that you'll have to design your site so that your ads are likely to be clicked on. Ads at or near the top of the page do better than those at the bottom of an article or hidden on a sidebar somewhere.
I can't tell you what Google pays for each click, because quite simply, Google doesn't know what it will get! It's all dependent on how valuable certain keywords are to advertisers.
A typical website running ads through an impression based ad network should earn about a $5 CPM. That number can go up to around $100 if it is a highly targeted and valuable demographic.
It would be difficult to tell you what the actual equation would be, because there are the previously mentioned variables that we can't accurately predict:
How valuable are the keywords you're offering?
What will your clickthrough rate be?
I hope this helps!