You can factor in the expected false positive base rate and the confidence to fi...

wyager on Dec 10, 2016 | parent | context | favorite | on: LIGO black hole echoes hint at general-relativity ...

You can factor in the expected false positive base rate and the confidence to figure out by how much you should boost your prior expectation of the theory being correct. "Being sure" is shorthand for "having a prior very close to 1 or 0".