This is a general flaw of predicting the future: people usually try to extrapolate along a single axis to see what will happen, all other things being equal. This is the model of:
the future = the present + <some innovation>
- now what are the ramifications?
The problem is that it's really difficult to bring all the other innovations and changes into the picture, and predict how those innovations will synergize (and antagonize) with one another.
The problem is that it's really difficult to bring all the other innovations and changes into the picture, and predict how those innovations will synergize (and antagonize) with one another.