It's not as scientific, but you can prepare a/b tests for paper prototypes and ask your users to go through them as they would go through the site.
Quantitative methods aren't reliable with such a small dataset so you will have to rely on assumptions and guesses. Unfortunately this makes your observations prone to bias from your hypothesis, so it's especially important to be mindful of this and keep them separate.
Edit: Didn't realize this was an AMA but hopefully my answer contributes to the discussion.
Sure, it does! I just added it to register that is weird to publish as an AMA and not answer many questions.
I think your approach is right. One thing that helps me is to use hypothesis from users/visitors/customer as much as possible. Talk to customers and try to distill what are their hypothesis about a specific problem. Talking to customer goes a long way.
On the topic, I think that famous quote atributed to Ford "If I asked my customer what they wanted, I would be trying to create faster horses". I think is BS (and probably bogus). That ad absurdum scenario would only happens if he asked the wrong questions and/or followed the most superficial answers.
Its funny - I think the Ford quote is right. I always tell folks to not ask a customer what they want but ask them what their problem is. Its the customer task to describe and demonstrate their problem - its the founder's task to think up and test solutions for that problem.
About the quote, it kinds of depends on what do you mean by "want", but I understand and agree of your approach (while still disagreeing with the quote if that is possible).
BTW the quote is probably bogus, as the first Ford cars were slower than horses. 45km/h vs 88km/h (world record)
sorry for the delay :) - its really hard to do active a/b tests in the early days - often I tell founders that feedback cycle then has to rely of direct interaction with customers alone. Which I think is a good habit for all startups to keep even when they can get quantitive data.
My question: how do you apply that when you have tens of visitors/users? Not nearly enough to have a reliable ab test.
Edit: so far he answered only one question. Not much of a AMA, right? Maybe remove it from the title.