After seeing the Surface Studio, it's hard to imagine what Apple can produce that will compete on the "wow" factor tomorrow, even if the Studio ends up not quite delivering for its price. It definitely set a bar for what we might expect with an innovative brand. I say this as a long time Apple customer who would actually just be fine if they released a new external monitor. I haven't been able to find a decent non-Apple monitor that doesn't exhibit wonky behavior when connected to my MBP (this includes the small things, such as responding to the Brightness function key)
> (this includes the small things, such as responding to the Brightness function key)
The sad part — that seems to play yet again — is that there's a standard just for that: DDC/CI. But none of the GPU vendors nor display vendors care enough to make it work reliably, if at all (apparently it's mostly used for automated display calibration, so if you fall out of that use case, tough luck).
I effectively hacked quite a lot of things around it, and ended up frying a couple gfx cards, because you can easily shoot yourself in the foot, write to the wrong part, and end up with a PCI card as useful as a waffle, only inedible. In the end I managed to pass some commands in very specific scenarios, but behaviours ended up highly dependent on the GPU, display, and combinations thereof I had available (from nothing, to glitchy screen, to aforementioned waffle, but it did work in one specific case \o/).
> this includes the small things, such as responding to the Brightness function key
About that, I have had some luck with https://github.com/kfix/ddcctl to adjust an external monitor brightness and 'brew brightness' to read the current brightness of my MBP.
I set that up in a cron job and that works well enough (although with a delay) with the brightness button of the MBP. The delay is less important to me as I use it essentially to sync the monitor brightness to the MBP autobrigthness.
I have to say I second this sentiment. It is in line with my feelings while watching the demo.
Even though I get PCs for gaming and data science on the side for non-profits (not big data, for the most part). The wow factor of this computer for me will likely wipe out a 'swipe bar' added to the macbook pro and some 'better' (read: not years old) internal upgrades.
If Apple insults us with yet again no monitor update, it's going to be huge.
Yes, and if only that iMac had a Cintiq-like tablet and stylus across it's entire screen, somewhat useful for artists, designers, almost like a Studio...
Chair is too high, monitors are too forward if he has to lean forward like that (he needs glasses, really), keyboard and mouse are too high (which is why many desks have trays), and monitors are too low (neutral position looking forwards, the middle should be right in front of you), two monitors instead of three, the "middle" one of the duo not straight ahead, no mouse pad...
Source please? And does this mean all those people bending their neck over their smartphone are OK? I always thought (because of the internet I guess, and because it makes most snese to me) looking down nor up is the best, but just straight forward. I.e. computer screen centered to the eyes vertically.
"Place monitor so top line of screen is at or below eye level."
I've very commonly heard ergonomics experts suggest having the top bezel of your monitor be at eye level which seems like it would be about right for the person in the photo if he wasn't hunching over, which is a problem but seemingly not one related to the height of his monitors.
I believe a constant extreme downward neck bend would be bad, the idea is that if the monitor's top is about eye level you can scan down to see it primarily just with your eyes without actually having to tilt your neck too much, which is quite different than the sort of extreme neck bending I believe you mean when it comes to certain types of cellphone usage.
Relatively recent convert to the old sculpt ergonomic keyboard, which I love.
The real escape key, and fn key to toggle the top row are likely to make me upgrade along with the standard home/page/arrow keys l, but it's a shame they dropped the tilt bar, integrated the numpad (particularly as I use a touchpad) and that colour makes me keep thinking the photos are bare 3D or clay renders. After reading about the rest of the presentation I realised that may have been intentional.
I find it interesting that Msft is choosing to battle Apple head on in the consumer space, I recall Sun Tzu "attack where your enemy is weak". Yet, msft is attacking Apple at their most loyal user base—designers.
Not only that but the machines, at a glance, resemble Apple's, so there is little physical differentiation. Is aluminum gray the only color for computers these days?
This strategy strikes me as incredibly odd, I wonder if anyone here sees the angle that I'm missing.
I've been an Apple zombie for a long time. Since like 2000 when I finally retired my beloved Amiga. Windows does everything the "wrong" way from the perspective of my habits. Yet I would be using a Surface 4 for most of my art nowadays if not for the fact that Adobe Illustrator, my main tool, doesn't talk to the Surface's NTrig stylus properly. So I'm still hauling around a four-year-old Air and a Wacom tablet. I have been ready to give Apple money for a new machine to do my work on for about a year now and they haven't put out anything that's worth bothering with for me.
And when's the last time Apple updated their super-high-end desktop machines for the Serious Major Power Users?
They've been focusing on phones and tablets, and that leaves the segment of the market whose work is "using Serious Art Power Tools" unserved.
Unless Apple's announcement tomorrow has something in it like "oh hey we finally decided to build a tablet that can run desktop apps" I'm probably gonna be pretty meh about it. And the rumors all point to "new Pro lappy with a touch panel instead of the f-keys", which is about as exciting to me as a lukewarm glass of milk.
I do not pretend to speak for all artists. Just for myself.
It drops about the first half-second of every stroke when you're using the pencil or brush tools, and completely loses some very short, quick lines. Which is a problem for someone like me who's been trained to draw with a lot of quick, confident strokes.
How's this for a collection of angles that seem to converge?
1. Windows has long been the platform of "boring corporate creative": the AutoCAD using mechanical engineer; the board room PowerPoint presenter. The drafting desk is a familiar acquaintance in some offices with a Windows PC.
2. Microsoft's DNA is in the maker space: it did begin as the software company for software developers. There is a creative DNA there too, but yes that creativity sometimes shines as rather "vanilla".
Microsoft here seems to be trying to celebrate its existing (sometimes unsung) creative users as much as to attract (back, sometimes) the same sorts of creatives that have been Apple's loyal following. The drafting desk is a staid, icon of all sorts of important, but "mundane" creative work, and Microsoft building essentially a "sexy" digital drafting desk seems as much for the "boring CAD shop" as the designer that clings to their MBP all hours of the day.
There's also some implication that Apple may have grown weak/complacent among creative types in the last few years. Certainly a great criticism lately has been that Apple's iOS/tvOS/watchOS-first strategies over the last few years seem much more content and much more at home with targeting (ease of) consumption over creation.
I think Satya in his closing remarks did a pretty good job of trying to tell the story of Microsoft long seeing itself as a creativity-enabling company. It's interesting seeing the Surface brand trying to shake off at least some of the long reputation of mundane creativity for something shinier. But it's also something I think they tried to sell the story of there's an importance to mundanity too; to everyone having a chance at creativity, to it not being a special class of person but something everyone should have access to. (In that way it seems also an attempt to grow a new user base of creative types that don't fit the classic Apple loyal model. Several references to keeping/capturing the imaginations of the so-called "Minecraft generation".)
Traditionally designers have been Apple's strongest supporters. But there has been a fair bit of grumbling about Apple abandoning power users in favor of consumers and an iOS focus. If Apple isn't inclined to make investments in supporting the segment, Microsoft is as well placed as anyone to go after it.
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Microsoft has always made nice hardware. Until recently, that has been limited to simple devices (like keyboards and mice). That has definitely changed.
I was pretty excited about the Surface Book when it came out (I'm an Apple fan). But I was unsure if that line would continue. That fact that it has been refreshed is good news.
The only thing that's missing is being able to plug an external video card (like the Alienware and Razer laptops can do). Once they are able to do that, switching to the Book is a no-brainer. I like MacOS, but it's only worth so much (specially with the unix subsystem on Windows now).
The one thing Microsoft needs to learn from Apple is how to design websites. The event URL is cluttered, the "fact sheets" are horrible.
What I find disappointing is that they emphasized how the base is quiet and yet they're using a HDD (hybrid)?!... in a $3K machine... You can get 1TB SSD for $300. Where is all that $3K going?
They have surpassed Apple a long time ago, with their Surface Pro and then Surface Book. The fact that Apple is rumored to remove function keys and include Polaris GPU instead of Pascal in their new MacBook Pros will be the last nail in their coffin.
Oh, and Microsoft have just made their laptop heavier than previous version to increase battery life to 16h. At the same time Macs are getting "thiner and ligher" (C)
What will failure look like? From your perspective, how would you measure the success or failure of your statement? I'm not necessarily disagreeing, just want to know what you mean by this.
First, content producers will abandon the Mac. Content producers have been the dominant part of the Mac's customer base for as long as the Mac has existed, but over the last few years Apple has been increasingly neglectful of that segment of their market. Letting the Mac Pro die on the vine, discontinuing Aperture, removing ports from the MacBook Pro, etc. At some point, the pro market will get sick of it and abandon ship, and this is twice as likely with Microsoft going out of their way to court creative professionals.
With the pros gone, there won't be a huge market for Macs anymore. There will be two types of people left: those who want a Unix machine with a user-friendly UX and iOS/watchOS/tvOS users who want a PC that will offer comprehensive integration with their gadgets. Those markets aren't huge.
The enthusiasts are a fickle market: they're just as likely to follow the pros in their exodus for most of the same reasons. On top of that, Windows 10 is becoming more and more attractive: the new Linux subsystem will scratch that "Unix box with friendly UI" itch just fine while also having all the compatibility benefits of running the most popular desktop operating system in the world (no more compromises for gamers!).
The consumers are going to find that the extra integration with iDevices isn't really a big deal, especially if the iDevices are their main machines. If you mostly use your iPad when you're at home, do you really need to keep buying new Macs? Why not just keep an old Mac around in case something comes up where you need to use a desktop and just not buy another? And if your old Mac does die, you can always just save some money and buy a cheap Windows PC... sure, you won't get Continuity, but did you ever really use it anyway?
So once the pros go, macOS and the Mac line will be on life support for a few more years, marketshare continuously shrinking until Apple stops updating the product line entirely, shifting to release only security updates, and then it'll stagnate a few more years before Apple stops Mac sales entirely. Just like the classic iPod.
I don't think the classic iPod is a good example here, the iPod line still exists.
I think something similar might happen with the Mac line, we might see the end of the Mac Pro, Mac mini and even the iMac (less likely). But I don't see the Macbook and Macbook Pro going anywhere soon.
Thanks for taking the time to put together such a lengthy answer detailing how the Apple ecosystem might collapse and providing some guidelines on how they might be measured.
I'll clarify what I meant in my first response. I understood mamon to make this claim[0] (clarified by teh_klev[1]):
If Apple removes the function keys and includes Polaris GPU in the MacBook Pros, it will be the "last nail in [the MacBook Pro's] coffin".
There are lots of vague claims forecasting the demise of this or that without any kinds of specifics. Given a long enough timeline, things do go downhill, so without those specifics, it's easy to claim to be validated.
I'm going to look at your response through that lens. And I'm going to be a pedantic, as that's was my initial intent. If that's not how you interpreted my comment, I won't be offended if you correct me :) And if the pedantics don't interest you, that's fine, too. I'm not going to pursue this thread any further following this comment (though I reserve the right to thank you if you take the time to respond :)
"At some point," -- Validated any time in the future if MacBook Pro sales slip in some way (market share, in comparison with some other product, profit, revenue, units shipped)
"Mac line will be on life support for a few more years, marketshare continuously shrinking until Apple stops updating the product line entirely,"
So, can we measure this as true if Apple no longer releases new personal computers (desktop or laptop) after October 2019? Only MacBook Pros?
"shifting to release only security updates"
Valid if: After October 2019, Apple no longer releases a new major version of macOS (e.g., 10.10, 10.11, 10.12).
"shifting to release only security updates"
it'll stagnate a few more years before Apple stops Mac sales entirely."
Valid if: After October 2022, Apple no longer sells laptops or desktops.
If you'd like to change the values -- or even the statements--, please go ahead. That's really all I'm getting at. Something substantive and measurable.
Great question. And good to push people to make verifiable statements.
I'm not the poster you're replying to, and I think "last nail in the coffin" was hyperbolic, but to me, decline would be measured as decreasing unit sales. Consistently over quarters and years, not one-off. As with the iPad: https://twitter.com/kartick_vad/status/791111864197320705 That's 10 quarters of decline!
I think what parent meant was "last nail in the MacBook Pro" coffin, not the company as a whole. It could well be that building high-end laptops like the old school MacBook Pro's for power users is no longer worthwhile from a profit generating perspective.
Okay. That's valid. What's failure look like in that case? A drop in MacBook Pro sales? By how much? A measurable reduction in the number of MacBook Pro's seen at conferences?
I guess I'm just pushing back on empty doom-and-gloom statements. I'm all for people making predictions, up or down. I just like to see them made with some kind of measurable scope. Otherwise they're not really substantive, especially when they tend towards the hyperbolic.
I'm always looking for ways to improve my own predictions as well, finding ways to measure the accuracy of what I'm thinking of. After all, you can only improve what you can measure, as they say. And you can only measure if you have something to measure against.
It isn't technically a failure, it's could just be a numbers thing, though I admittedly don't have any numbers. If the upcoming new MacBook Pro doesn't set the heather on fire from a technical standpoint then I guess this is the commercially the level of hardware they're going to settle with trend-wise.
I saw the same thing happen with Dell's high end Precision laptops a few years back. Once upon a time you got a full 17" 1920x1200 display and an outstanding specification that would almost match the power of their desktop Precision range. But then the displays changed to cheaper 1080p panels, the processor, memory and GPU offerings were less than stellar and that was that. They settled on new revisions that were good enough, but not the impressive flagship models they once manufactured. I think this is maybe happening to Apple and the MB Pro range.
"this is the commercially the level of hardware they're going to settle with trend-wise."
Makes sense. By "level of hardware" are you thinking of specs (ports, screen, processors)? Form factor (dimensions, battery life)? Software?
"the same thing happen with Dell's high end Precision laptops"
Do I understand correctly that the specs of the Dell Precision line reached a peak and then decreased? Plateaued? Just didn't keep up with the cutting edge hardware available? I can see the third happening -- sadly, it could be argued that it's been happening for a while. I have a harder time imagining the first two scenarios happening.
Thanks for digging into this more. This is the kind of discussion I think is useful. Cheers!
> By "level of hardware" are you thinking of specs (ports, screen, processors)?
Yes, this.
As for the Dell's they plateaued then weren't as cutting edge any more.
I used to lust after Dell's top of the range Precision laptop, but not any more.
Edit: That said, I just took a look at the specs of their latest offering, the Precision 7000. They seem to have stepped their game up a bit since I last looked. You can get a 4K display now.
Apple is often worth being mimicked and when it comes to form factor, doubly so. However, I think this comment is shortsighted and completely devalues everything Microsoft is coming out with lately. They have added things to their products that Apple has yet to add, and they're making innovative jumps that Apple is scared to make.
I agree, this is the best thing I've seen from Microsoft in a long while. They're not comparing themselves to Apple, they're moving in their own direction, they have a focus, and they have innovation to support that focus.
Belkin makes them. They are continuous and have a pushbutton. They're like $130 or something ridiculous. I've only ever used them for tuning around in a software defined radio, but a lot of music/video editors use them as jog dials.
