My gut feeling is also that an iPhone Edition is coming in March 2017, and it will be ceramic at a price closer to $2k.
Apple probably also wants to update the iPhone SE (which was released last March), so it would coincide neatly. That would create a new cadence for iPhone updates:
- New "Series" introduction every even year in September
- New S model every odd year in September
- New Edition model and SE model every March
With the Watch, Apple has started using the Series nomenclature ("Apple Watch Series 2"). That would work for iPhones as well. So the current iPhone 7 and 7 Plus is really the first two models of "Series 7", and next up will be "iPhone Series 7 Edition" and "iPhone Series 7 SE".
First, I don't think Apple is likely to ever introduce an "Edition" iPhone in the mold of the Edition watches (that is, a purely cosmetic or material variation at >3X the cost of the base model). It's simply not worth pushing the iPhones the vast majority of people will actually buy out of the "top end" category. Every second in a keynote spent ogling over a $2000 ceramic iPhone is a second that's not selling to (and indeed may be discouraging) the customers who are going to make Apple real money. When Apple made a "gold" iPhone they didn't charge a penny more for it, and people went nuts.
Second, even if Apple were to go down the "Edition" route, a schedule where the "best" iPhone comes out six months after a more "boring" phone with the same guts doesn't make sense. They'd be Osborne'ing themselves every year: "Yeah, the iPhone 9 looks great, but rumor has it the Edition will be made of carbon fiber! I'm going to stick with my 8 for a few more months."
On the other hand, they need growth (market expects that) and it is harder and harder to attract completely new iPhone customers. Increasing the amount of money extracted from those who are anyways buying iPhone is one option.
More expensive models can also boost the sale of cheaper ones among certain customers. This can give the brand a luxury image. Of course if done wrong, it might also drive some other customers away.
> On the other hand, they need growth (market expects that) and it is harder and harder to attract completely new iPhone customers.
Just introduce an "Hackability Edition" of the iPhone which has many of the features that make nerds drool, as ability to allocate executable memory in apps (thus making JIT possible), ability to sideload apps, replaceable battery etc. and Apple will have completely new iPhone customers.
"Yeah, the iPhone 9 looks great, but rumor has it the Edition will be made of carbon fiber! I'm going to stick with my 8 for a few more months."
That actually seems like the perfect outcome? Currently iPhone sales are heavily seasonal towards the end of the calendar year. Seasonality always carries risks (e.g. potential supply issues).
If a group of customers waited 6 months to buy a higher-margin luxury product instead, that would be a net gain for Apple.
The danger is that some customers don't buy at all.
Either because by the time March rolls around, they're already thinking about the newer phone due in October, or because the mere existence of the Edition (even if they can't afford it) makes the "cheaper" phone less appealing.
It's also hard to see how Apple could get terrific margins on a product that would sell at (say) 4x the price but at 1/20th the volume. They'd probably do just as well if their enthusiasts keep buying a top-end $1,000 SKU of the "regular" phone annually.
> The danger is that some customers don't buy at all.
I'm still using my 3-year-old iPhone 5S. I may update to the 7, but I'm not sure I will...for exactly the reasons you state. The phone works fine, and the only thing I'm really concerned about is some future iOS update making the phone unusable. My question is: is my update cycle going to become more common (or even the norm)? How does Apple hedge against a more fragmented purchasing pattern?
They will try to make people buy watches and devices to watch movies.
The decrease on sales, specially around the world where people aren't constrained to 2 year contract renewals and stick to their phones until they die, is one of the main reasons companies are trying to diversify beyond mobile phones.
I suspect there's also more demand for ceramic in something you wear against your skin all day than something you carry in a pocket. I don't see ceramic having the same appeal in a large, flat form factor.
But the aWatch "Edition" Edition was a big failure, right? They discontinued it and replaced it with something costing like 1/5th as much? Why would they be eager to extend the branding to the iPhone?
If the ceramic aWatch Editionv2 is a huge success, okay, sure, maybe. But... you really think they're confident of that at this point?
That's why we're talking about ceramic (which was just introduced as the high end watch), not gold (which failed). I don't think it's especially likely, but the failure of a $10k+ gold watch doesn't forecast anything about the likelihood of a higher end iPhone.
Apple probably also wants to update the iPhone SE (which was released last March), so it would coincide neatly. That would create a new cadence for iPhone updates:
- New "Series" introduction every even year in September
- New S model every odd year in September
- New Edition model and SE model every March
With the Watch, Apple has started using the Series nomenclature ("Apple Watch Series 2"). That would work for iPhones as well. So the current iPhone 7 and 7 Plus is really the first two models of "Series 7", and next up will be "iPhone Series 7 Edition" and "iPhone Series 7 SE".