I really like your post and I think you're on to something, but I want to be pedantic about one point I think is important:
> Unlike the true magic thinking of millenias past, there is an underlying transmission mechanism
This doesn't distinguish it from magical thinking. Witches transmitted demons using magic... or whatever.
What distinguishes it from magical thinking is that the transmission mechanism is 1) based upon empirical observations; and 2) far more importantly, is a refutable theory. So even if we can't prove or disprove the theory with high statistical confidence using a single experiment, we can formulate specific hypotheses that test the veracity of the theory and then try to refute those hypotheses. Either in controlled but very small scale settings, or by finding naturally occurring data sets that prove or refute the theory.
Many economic theories are vaguely similar to evolution in this one respect[1]. The problem with theories of this variety is that if you know a priori what you want to be true, then you can amass evidence. So you have to be intellectually honest with yourself, or you're just hiding your magical thinking with a pile of complexity.
[1] But extremely different in many other ways... I mean for this comparison only to point out a single similarity -- that neither theory's complete set of claims can be directly tested experimentally, but we can still think about these theories scientifically. Of course the comparison between evolution and any particular economic theory more-or-less stops there...
> Unlike the true magic thinking of millenias past, there is an underlying transmission mechanism
This doesn't distinguish it from magical thinking. Witches transmitted demons using magic... or whatever.
What distinguishes it from magical thinking is that the transmission mechanism is 1) based upon empirical observations; and 2) far more importantly, is a refutable theory. So even if we can't prove or disprove the theory with high statistical confidence using a single experiment, we can formulate specific hypotheses that test the veracity of the theory and then try to refute those hypotheses. Either in controlled but very small scale settings, or by finding naturally occurring data sets that prove or refute the theory.
Many economic theories are vaguely similar to evolution in this one respect[1]. The problem with theories of this variety is that if you know a priori what you want to be true, then you can amass evidence. So you have to be intellectually honest with yourself, or you're just hiding your magical thinking with a pile of complexity.
[1] But extremely different in many other ways... I mean for this comparison only to point out a single similarity -- that neither theory's complete set of claims can be directly tested experimentally, but we can still think about these theories scientifically. Of course the comparison between evolution and any particular economic theory more-or-less stops there...