On one hand, I think that it's a matter of policy due to NASA's downright prohibition on working with China [1]
"China has been barred from the ISS since 2011, when Congress passed a law prohibiting official American contact with the Chinese space program due to concerns about national security. “National security,” of course, is the lingua franca excuse for any country to do anything it jolly well wants to do even if it has nothing to do with, you know, the security of the nation. But never mind." - [1]
On the other hand, I agree with you.
To paraphrase Andy Weir, scientists can always work together. Things get messy when politics are involved.
Like cryptography[1], rocketry has an inherent political character. If you disagree, then how would you feel about training a team of North Korean scientists in the type of long-range rocketry involved delivering a payload to a target as small as ISS?
I personally trust China with rocketry far far more than I trust North Korea, but "Do we trust this country with knowledge useful for killing large numbers of people?" is totally within the scope of a government to decide.
But haven't China proven (again) that they already have that technology? Unlike the DPRK (who don't seem too eager to get into orbit, either). Not working with China in space feels like a rehash of the cold war space race, except the US and the PRC are quite a lot friendlier, at least in terms of trade, and travel.
NK is indeed working on delivering payloads to orbit. Their latest mission was declared a success, although most watchers determined the orbit was so bad it would be coming down soon. I didn't follow the mission closely so I don't know what became of it.
Adding a new partner to the ISS requires unanimous agreement of all existing partners. As it happens, the US is the only one who opposes China, but, in concept, any of the participating space agencies (or their controlling government(s)) could block participation.
Maybe if the other members of the international community invested as much into it, they'd get an equal say. The split is something like NASA 80%, Russia 10%, rest of world, 10%. (Although it depends how you adjust for inflation)
> If all this makes you worried about China's long-term cosmic ambitions, then you are not the only one.
I too saw that as a weasel phrase. Propaganda isn't limited to countries we claim don't have free speech. Little things like this are probably not due to government's direct control over media, but they're a result of the natural fears people tend to have been given due to their government's political stance and foreign policy.
The western world depends on China to be their manufacturer. Many of our startups and industry that deal with durable goods are dependent on their vast manufacturing power. Yet we use their government as a means to also hold them at an arms length.
I don't understand how "national security concerns" is not a valid risk. Of all the countries in the world, China is 1 of 2 that are actually capable of standing up to US military might, and the only real advantage the US has is a more robust intelligence system via satellites. Satellites that for example can early detect missile launches, track missiles, guide missiles, etc.
If I was a US military adviser I would absolutely be putting full pressure on avoiding any situation that gives the Chinese or the Russians more insight or access to the space program.
I think war and military stuff is stupid and antithesis to the advancement of the human race, but I can see how someone who's job it is to be concerned about that sort of thing is very concerned about that sort of thing.
When you get to the point where you truly think it's a problem that someone else on the planet could potentially "stand up to you," it's time to reevaluate your own behavior.
As a non-American, I would much rather have the US in that role than any other country in the world. In diplomacy and international relations the United States has conducted itself with fairness and honour, and is generally regarded outside of her borders as an honest broker.
If you want to know what the world would look like without a strong, democratic, law-abiding nation as supreme military power, read up on recent news about the South China Sea and the 11-dash line. Look at the honesty and even-handedness with which America has approached border disputes with it's neighbours, and then look at what Japan, Vietnam, and the Phillipines are up against. In the world view of China's leaders, the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.
> In diplomacy and international relations the United States has conducted itself with fairness and honour, and is generally regarded outside of her borders as an honest broker.
That's an excellent propaganda piece. You deserve a medal for that.
> If you want to know what the world would look like without a strong, democratic, law-abiding nation as supreme military power, read up on recent news about the South China Sea and the 11-dash line.
You can say that because your country has not been invaded by US and the "international community", or the "Coalition of the Willing", to get rid of your government - by all means necessary. Assad of Syria, Saddam and Muammar Gaddafi will no doubt disagree with your characterization of the US as a "law-abiding nation". Ditto for many South American countries.
> As a non-American, I would much rather have the US in that role than any other country in the world. In diplomacy and international relations the United States has conducted itself with fairness and honour, and is generally regarded outside of her borders as an honest broker.
The following groups or countries may argue otherwise
- Sandinista National Liberation Front
- Cubans
- Certain Arab countries
- Mexico
- Pacific Islanders
- Certain North African nations
- Certain Central African nations
- The Cherokee Nation
- Certain Far East nations
In diplomacy and international relations, the US has killed countless civilians, used nuclear weapons, launched unjustified invasions of other countries, deposed democratically elected foreign leaders for opposing American interests, and to this day spies on everyone we possibly can. Maybe you're the one who should do some more reading. Or at least watch a movie.
If you think the US has behaved better than other countries, that's reasonable. But that's not the same as behaving well. And a far cry from behaving well enough to be entrusted with "supreme military power".
In diplomacy and international relations, the US has killed countless civilians
The United States has also conducted at least 4 wars since the end of World War II; should America be condemned for not having smart bombs in the Korean war?
, used nuclear weapons
...to end World War II and save countless lives, US and Japanese, by avoiding an invasion of Japan. Just the fact that the US was able to end the horrible incendiary bombing of Japanese cities and force Japan's truculent leaders into immediate surrender argues that the use of nuclear weapons in World War II saved far more lives than it cost.
But historical revisionism wins out against lost memories of the worst war ever fought and only barely won.
, launched unjustified invasions of other countries, deposed democratically elected foreign leaders for opposing American interests
The United States is tremendously powerful, and yet generally acts with restraint. And would the world have been better off if more countries had allied themselves with the Soviet Union?
, and to this day spies on everyone we possibly can.
If American power and influence has created a world so stable and peaceful that there are Polly-Annas who believe that espionage isn't universal and endemic among all nations, then that is a very good thing in my opinion.
But that's not the same as behaving well. And a far cry from behaving well enough to be entrusted with "supreme military power".
Nature and international relations abhors a vacuum; no one 'entrusted' the United States to the role they now occupy. Would you be happier if China filled this vacuum?
You would rather see people like Trump gain the power over that, than a possible future federated Europe?
I would take Donald Trump or anyone currently involved in Federal US politics over Xi Xinping or Vladimir Putin. Is that what you're asking?
And a federated Europe is now a given. Brexit is an existential challenge for Europe; with federation's most vocal opponent now out and with the fundamental moral hazard of endless Greek bail-outs still an issue, the EU will federate or eventually dissolve.
To play devil's advocate, suppose we re-evaluated our own behavior and "stepped down" from that position. It would be great if nobody stepped in to fill that void, but they would without a doubt.
That hypothetical situation is so far divorced from reality that it's impossible to say anything useful about it. Right now, the US spends more on its military than the next seven countries combined. A world in which those tables were turned would look very little like ours.
Most of Europe doesn't act like us or behave like us and are pretty "secure" from a national security perspective.
The only power that really matters is economic power and, honestly, military strength doesn't really help with that past the point you are roughly equal to everyone else.
> I don't understand how "national security concerns" is not a valid risk.
Why did Western leadership adopt the policy of technology transfer to Peoples Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party?
If there is a "national security concern" then we can thank the likes of CFR membership and their fellow travelers [1], and continual transfer of American technology to PRC/CCP by successive US administrations and our "allies".
Most countries are happy to spend 1/2 the US's GDP % on national defense. The EU has both a larger economy and a larger population so it could easily support a larger military. But, doing so is basically pointless as for example crushing Iraq had zero benefit to the US and countries that matter have nukes.
>>Of all the countries in the world, China is 1 of 2 that are actually capable of standing up to US military might, and the only real advantage the US has is a more robust intelligence system via satellites.
Umm, no. Modern military power is all about the ability to project that power, and that means aircraft carriers. The USA has 11. China has only 1 (and it's an old, shitty one).
> The influential U.S. Adm. Hyman Rickover shared this view. In a 1982 congressional hearing, legislators asked him how long American carriers would survive in an actual war. Rickover’s response? “Forty-eight hours,” he said.
> The influential U.S. Adm. Hyman Rickover shared this view. In a 1982 congressional hearing, legislators asked him how long American carriers would survive in an actual war. Rickover’s response? “Forty-eight hours,” he said.
That's a terrifying assessment, and tells us that if there was a war, we don't really know what anyone would be fighting it with. Perhaps the only thing we can feel good about is that if the US has been wasting its military budget on aircraft carriers, China appears to be pretty eager to emulate this mistake.
Power projection is more important for their capabilities in smaller conflict, esp against nations with less submarine capability. Many strategists believe carrier groups are at a heavy disadvantage against modern submarines.
@komali2 You're kidding, right? China is a world power, for sure, but even they know that the US would kick their assets in every way. They have potentially more foot-power, but the US could get away without ground troops at this point. The GPS satellites, the ones that the US owns and are used by every other nation, could be easily shut off or locked if China started a conflict. Sure, they might try to launch their own, but that takes a lot of time and money, and wouldn't be too difficult to sabotage. The US has like, what, 11 aircraft carriers? Last I read, China had 1 and it was a hand-me-down from Russia. The US, as of this last year, has laser technology to shoot down missiles, and I don't think even Russia has this yet. China owns part of the US's debt in treasury bonds, which only the US can honor; so if they want their money to start building up to a war, the US could basically say no and there'd be little that China could do about it. China will do what they can to stay a world power, but it doesn't make financial sense for them to compete militarily with the US when they can profit from competing with the US economy. While the Chinese economy has waxed and waned, like anything else, they have done exceptionally well being an economical force rather than a militant one. I think this can be shown in the fact that many quality products are being produced by Chinese companies, which wasn't really happening a decade ago. Now they are at a point where they can take advantage of certain foolish decisions that the US has made that have stalled it's scientific research, like dismantling large portions of the space program and putting heavy regulations on stem cell research, to name a few. I am making a prediction here, but I think far more scientific advancements will be coming from China in the decades to come. And I think that's a very good thing.
> Of all the countries in the world, China is 1 of 2 that are actually capable of standing up to US military might, and the only real advantage the US has is a more robust intelligence system via satellites.
citation?
From what i've read/heard the Chinese military may be second or third in might, but the drop is so steep so as to not compare to first place holder.
Chomsky sure as hell paints that picture, at least.
Unlike Russia or Islamic Terrorists China has a very clear cut objective of expanding its boundaries. It first captured Tibet then parts of India and now it is claiming South China sea.
China is clearly number 1 and very alive threat to USA and americans would be wise to be skeptical about China at all steps.
Hmm, I've noticed a huge spike of anti-China news sourced from USA lately. This also includes Chinese replacing the generic Russians as bad guys in popular media in games.
What gives? Is USA gearing up the propaganda engine for another cold war?
It's not a war, just a markedly more contentious relationship than we had 10 years ago.
China's encroachment on international shipping lanes in the S. Pacific is certainly a visible symptom, but the debt to GDP trend (250% and growing [-]) is probably more significant. There's tension brewing in currency markets, trade, FDI policy, etc.
It wouldn't be election year without a healthy dose of fear! Gotta convince voters to place it safe.
As far as I'm aware we've got China, Russia, ISIS/Muslims, and "Immigrants"/Mexicans so far. Plus internal tension over things like BLM and the election itself.
> Hmm, I've noticed a huge spike of anti-China news sourced from USA lately. This also includes Chinese replacing the generic Russians as bad guys in popular media in games.
> What gives? Is USA gearing up the propaganda engine for another cold war?
Market manipulation, hacking US networks, and military posturing towards our allies. (e.g. Japan)
The mindset still stuck in the cold war era. As another comment in this thread, there has been "a huge spike of anti-China news sourced from USA" in the last several years. These news are quoted in China, and in many cases, without giving the full context, as also happen in USA news when reporting China. This has led to a huge spike of anti-America news from China.
Peace, please! National conflicts hurt the common people the most, especially so in such a globalized world.
Because missile guidance technology is a little more sensitive than the iPhone 8's screen dimensions. Because the specifics of the US space surveillance and communications network isn't something you share with anyone but the closest of strategic partners. Should china decide one day to join the club, to participate openly in defense projects and initiatives, then perhaps. When they allow US officers to serve on their ships and in their bases, as Canada/US/Australia/UK officers do in the west. When they allow US warplanes to fly in their airspace. When they allow Canadian ships to ply their waters without escort. Then perhaps. But that won't be for at least another generation or two.
> Because missile guidance technology is a little more sensitive than the iPhone 8's screen dimensions. Because the specifics of the US space surveillance and communications network isn't something you share with anyone but the closest of strategic partners.
Neither of which is in any way relevant to the civilian space program.
Exposure to America's space program could provide China with access to dual-use technology that they don't currently possess. Look into the Loral Space Systems controversy from 1996. From wikipedia:
Loral was accused of transferring technology to China in 1996. The incident arose as a result of an investigation into the launch failure of Intelsat 708, a Space Systems/Loral–built satellite. In a 2002 agreement with the State Department and Department of Justice the company agreed to pay $20 million in fines to settle the matter and to improve its compliance procedures. In the agreement Loral officials neither admitted nor denied the government's charges, but Loral executives acknowledged "the nature and seriousness of the offenses alleged by the department in the draft charging letter, including the risk of harm to the security and foreign policy interests of the United States", and stated that they wished to make amends through the payment of restitution. Schwartz subsequently released a statement accepting "full responsibility for the matter" and portrayed the incident as an error by a single Loral employee.
Far from being a tour-de-force of Chinese espionage, this rocket technology leak apparently happened because a Loral employee accidentally sent a single internal Loral post-mortem document by fax to their Chinese partners. Its almost impossible to keep secrets when there's close business cooperation like this; accidents happen.
If it's that easy to do it accidentally, I rather suspect China's intelligence services have it already covered via compromised employees and hacked servers.
Not in that case, no. The document apparently was a post-mortem on a failed satellite launch, that said something of the sort, "the launch failed because the Chinese engineers haven't begun doing so-and-so with technology XYZ as we have." The fact that the launch had failed in the first place suggested that the Chinese did not yet appreciate the importance or realize the existence of technology XYZ yet.
this is, in all likelihood, diplomatic speak saying to China, "stop the blatant government sponsored cyber spying and corporate espionage and we can talk about more about space cooperation."
You might think it is dumb that China is not allowed to participate in the ISS, but does it make you curious why this is? Is China an innocent victim of politics? Or did they warrant the ban from ISS?
Thanks for pointing that out. I'm sick of news agencies simply echoing this kind of nonsense as if it was "what everyone thinks" for no special reason.
China is a country with expansionist mindset and a single minded focus to steal technology from others. USA might collaborate with China but after benefiting from USA will China reciprocate I think the answer to that is "NEVER".
I think American decision to not giving China access to ISS is political and knee jerk but might be a very pragmatic one too.
The ability to launch heavy payloads into orbit strikes me as having obvious military and intelligence implications. China and most of the rest of the world are not friends, it's more like detente with a brutally co-dependent economic relationship.
The Chinese talk about maybe sending a man to the moon, and they've launched a couple of these space stations, but they've only done 5 crewed launches since 2003, and the last one was 3 years ago in 2013. It seems like China is doing the bare minimum to show that they have the capability, but doesn't actually have any real ambitions in this area.
I'm actually kind of impressed by how sensible they've been.
On the one hand, China would have the resources to make a far more ambitious showing in space, if they really wanted to. They could easily outpace the early space-age Soviet launch rate etc; this would make a vivid statement about their prowess as a nation, but it wouldn't really do much more than that (until they get to the point of, I don't know, mining asteroids or something).
On the other hand, they could equally take the view that human spaceflight is totally frivolous and they should keep their investments firmly rooted on Earth. This would be hugely short-sighted -- abdicating the rest of the universe to whomever has more vision than them. In fact, China did this already, when they reined in Zheng He, burned the Treasure Fleet, and focused all investment inward. The result was centuries of humiliation, which China is not particularly keen to repeat.
So the path that they're taking seems to be keeping one foot prudently planted in space, without going nuts. When it's strategically important to make a major push in space, they'll have the technology and the experience to do that. Until then, they've mostly got other fish to fry. It seems to be a pretty reasonable approach.
The US went from its first suborbital spaceflight to landing two people on the moon in just over eight years. But that furious pace didn't really work out very well in the long term. Maybe they mean it but are just taking their sweet time.
Why would they send people in space without a proper space station? China is banned from using the ISS, no nation has a spacehab-alike capability for long-term orbital missions without a space station right now, and China's first station could not be resupplied, heavily restricting its life span (similar to Spacelab and early Salyut stations). Doing scientific missions in a cramped capsule is just pointless (and has been for decades now).
If you actually wanted to get anything done in space, it would be far more efficient to send a robot. The only reason to send a person is to prove you can.
In addition to that however, sending a human crew to Mars will result in more digging, surveying, water prospecting and life hunting being done within the first month of exploration than all of the rover missions combined.
The added benefit of having humans in space, especially if their reason for being in there is because that particular bit of space is in the way of earth and a planet, is securing the legacy of the human race by putting our eggs in more than one basket.
To that end, I'll flip your assertion back on you: The only reason to send a robot to space is to prove that you can, especially if we don't follow it up with human missions.
> In addition to that however, sending a human crew to Mars will result in more digging, surveying, water prospecting and life hunting being done within the first month of exploration than all of the rover missions combined.
Remember, this isn't just wishful thinking. We can do a side-by-side comparison:
The Russian Lunokhod Moon rovers were engineering marvels, vastly outperforming most of NASA's Mars rovers… and they're barely worth a footnote in our exploration history of the Moon, because Apollo astronauts collected more data during lunch breaks than the Lunokhods in a good week.
I don't think the outsized mindshare of the Apollo missions has anything to do with the amount of data they collected. In fact one of the major criticisms of the Apollo program is that it produced relatively little scientific knowledge for the amount of money that was spent on it.
I remember some study being conducted where they tasked a duplicate of some Mars rover with finding life... on Earth. It found none.
Whilst it might be valid that you could launch a more-effective-in-aggregate fleet of rovers for the cost of a manned mission, I'm still a huge proponent of getting people out there to have a look around.
True. Imho, sending men to space is needlessly costly especially considering how little science gets accomplished. We have learned far more about the cosmos from robotic orbiters and landers.
Exactly. It's a national prestige thing, as most manned space programs tend to be. But for China's case they are going very slowly. In ... something like 17 years of operations they've only flown 5 total manned missions. They're not trying to conquer the galaxy, they're just slowly maintaining and building on their program.
I figure it this way, the more they invest in space and science to allow for probes to other planets the less they will spend on their military. Now if we could our country (US resident here) to follow suit
> In August, the country launched the world's first quantum satellite, aimed at achieving "hack-proof" communications between space and ground control.
I'm not sure exactly where this subthread went off the rails, but the petty flamewar you two turned it into is definitely below the level of discourse we want here.
Political, ideological, and/or national arguments are problematic on HN to begin with, but turning them into angry battles or personal spats is right out.
> If all this makes you worried about China's long-term cosmic ambitions, then you are not the only one.
I think it's dumb that China is not allowed to participate in the ISS.