It's absolutely the case, if you look up how the 12th amendment actually works, the representative breakdowns by state, and cross-reference by the public statements that the various Republican representatives have made - not to mention many of them being actual Trump delegates. Trump has the House locked up with a lot of room to spare.
Did you know that the House of Reps absolutely has to limit their choices to the top three EV recipients? There's absolutely no scenario where Romney or Ryan wins.
> Did you know that the House of Reps absolutely has to limit their choices to the top three EV recipients?
Well, yes, but for some reason it slipped my mind when I posted the response, and I would have deleted it if you hadn't responded first. So, I'm just going to edit it down to an "Oh, nevermind" and be done with that whole line.
There's actually some imaginable scenarios where Trump wouldn't win (and where other options would be available), but it requires electors realizing before casting their votes that their won't be an electoral majority if votes are cast normally, and then colluding to vote "faithlessly" in order to give the House different options [0]. But, while imaginable and legally possible, this is quite improbable (but then, so is no candidate getting 270 EVs.)
[0] In principle, this could happen even if there was an apparent electoral majority, but its even less plausible in that case. It really only makes any kind of political sense as a response to the condition where a lack of an electoral majority means that there is going to be an unclear mandate for whomever is elected.
Yeah, I generally categorize those kinds of outcomes as hoping that your enemies will act in your interests. Like, people who prefer differently than you somehow voting for an outcome you want - so I generally disregard them and lump them in with "impossible" just for the sake of convenience. :)
The main problem I have with third-party voting is that it actually increases the probability - however remotely - that the House of Reps scenario happens. (Plenty of caveats apply.)
> The main problem I have with third-party voting is that it actually increases the probability - however remotely - that the House of Reps scenario happens.
Well, clearly third party voting is required for it to happen (barring, for the moment, faithless electors or bizarre vote tabulation errors where people who get no actual votes are certified as the winners of state-level elections, rejection of electoral votes in the Congressional count, electors simply not voting at all, or interference by state legislature to assign electors other than those that would be chosen based on the popular vote); if all popular votes are cast for one of the two major-party candidates then all electoral votes will go to one of the two major-party candidates and one of the two major party candidates will, of necessity, get a majority of EVs.
OTOH, third party voting is more likely to change which major party candidate wins certain electoral votes than it is to actually give EVs to minor candidates (and even if it does the latter, its pretty unlikely to contribute to a sub-270 situation.)
269-269 is actually possible but seems very unlikely this year. But yeah, I agree that third party voting is more likely to yield spoiler effects than EVs.
Did you know that the House of Reps absolutely has to limit their choices to the top three EV recipients? There's absolutely no scenario where Romney or Ryan wins.