> When the article was written in 2013 it seemed very likely to be true.
I want to be pedantic about this and point out that this is a kind of a mistake. The issues that were present in the original studies were already "known", even if people didn't pay attention to that. It appears that even in 1967 it was already a thing: http://andrewgelman.com/2016/05/06/needed-an-intellectual-hi... (discussing this article of Paul Meehl: http://www.fisme.science.uu.nl/staff/christianb/downloads/me...) Since people didn't pay attention to the criticism, it's technically correct that the consensus was that it seemed likely to be true, but still…
I want to be pedantic about this and point out that this is a kind of a mistake. The issues that were present in the original studies were already "known", even if people didn't pay attention to that. It appears that even in 1967 it was already a thing: http://andrewgelman.com/2016/05/06/needed-an-intellectual-hi... (discussing this article of Paul Meehl: http://www.fisme.science.uu.nl/staff/christianb/downloads/me...) Since people didn't pay attention to the criticism, it's technically correct that the consensus was that it seemed likely to be true, but still…