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There's a paper from 2014 that frames global warming in terms of global cumulative CO2 emissions. By that metric we can fix a global cumulative CO2 emission budget that has a decent chance of limiting warming to +2C. As of 2014 we had used 2/3rds of that budget, with the remaining 1/3 of the budget projected to be used up in 30 years if global emissions continued at the 2014 level.

I find it unrealistic that temperature increase will be limited to +2C, that would require serious efforts and a change in focus and behaviour that to date has not been observed.

In terms of the impact, there was a conference in 2009 focusing on +4C scenarios that might be worth a look at. [2]

(i am not a climate scientist, but there are plenty of articles written by climate scientists)

[1] - https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/bitstream/handle/10871/2...

[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4_Degrees_and_Beyond_Internati...




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