The reason HN probably thinks that with the startup bubble, this time it's not different, while with AI, this time it's different is because that's what the facts indicate and HN tends to be well informed.
The bubble is same old and it's debateable whether it even is a proper bubble or just some frothy valuations. Such periods of overvaluation have happened many times and will come and go.
The AI thing is quite different. If you accept the human brain is effectively a biological computer and that normal computers get more powerful every year then inevitably there's a point when they get more powerful (in terms of processing power and memory) than the biological ones. This is happening over the next twenty years roughly. No one said that is happening before. It's a one off inevitable event that will happen once and only once in human history, of a significance comparable to the evolution of multicellular life forms say. It should be interesting to see.
>If you accept the human brain is effectively a biological computer and that normal computers get more powerful every year then inevitably there's a point when they get more powerful (in terms of processing power and memory) than the biological ones.
That doesn't give you anything like the right algorithms to run on the computers. MOore's Law has been ending, so that free ride to avoid taking asymptotic complexity seriously is over.
Actually, the the facts show "this time it's different" for both. Every indicator tells us this startup boom is nothing like the past bubbles and is actually quite sustainable. (In fact your comment seems to indicate you hold this view, which is not what the HN groupthink view is that I'm referring to).
The bubble is same old and it's debateable whether it even is a proper bubble or just some frothy valuations. Such periods of overvaluation have happened many times and will come and go.
The AI thing is quite different. If you accept the human brain is effectively a biological computer and that normal computers get more powerful every year then inevitably there's a point when they get more powerful (in terms of processing power and memory) than the biological ones. This is happening over the next twenty years roughly. No one said that is happening before. It's a one off inevitable event that will happen once and only once in human history, of a significance comparable to the evolution of multicellular life forms say. It should be interesting to see.