I find articles like this, and the subsequent discussion about them, interesting. Tesla is a very aggressive auto company, and they have made a lot of huge bets. If more of their bets pay off than don't, they come out ahead. That is very hard for investors to understand but some get it and some don't.
And the really interesting thing is that Elon speaks pretty clearly about the things they are doing that they don't know how they will come out, and this sets up an interesting cognitive dissonance in investors. When you tell someone "this date is the one we put out to get alignment of our suppliers, we assumed not all of them would be ready." Financial people's heads explode. They struggle with management not knowing exactly what is going to happen with events that are critical to the survival of the company. In their head a little dialogue goes "well if they don't know that, how do they even know they will exist next year?" and I expect the truth is they don't. Operating without a net is something Elon seems to be able to pull off when others can't.
I do think the departures are a challenge though. Coming into an organization at a senior level and learning the strengths and weaknesses of the team is a hugely challenging thing to do. It takes time and if you don't have that time it can be really stressful. You find yourself counting on teams to deliver that you have no idea whether or not they have what it takes. So you are hyperfocused on everything and keeping your baloney detector set to max sensitivity to try quickly identify what is working and what isn't. It has to make replacing people at that level very difficult indeed.
"If more of their bets pay off than don't, they come out ahead. That is very hard for investors to understand but some get it and some don't."
If you are an investor and don't understand that, I strongly suggest you change jobs. Investing isn't a lottery with guaranteed wins.
Also, the article hints that Tesla doesn't have enough money in its pockets to withstand making few bad bets. They may have a strategy that is guaranteed to move them ahead after 20 bets, but if they have money for only 3 bets, they may run out of money before they can pay for those 20 bets.
But yes, from what I understand, the financial journalists aren't reporting what kind of deadline was talked about. If you have a zillion suppliers, you don't tell them "July 1, but if you don't make it, it is OK", but you also know that, statistically, something will go wrong. A fire in a factory, a strike, an earthquake, or a design change, all can lead to delays, and cannot be avoided.
>When you tell someone "this date is the one we put out to get alignment of our suppliers, we assumed not all of them would be ready." Financial people's heads explode.
Well, no. If that was the case then they wouldn't have put billions of dollars into Tesla. Investors understand that Tesla's strategy is a manic rush to scale, it's not actually a difficult business plan to understand just to successfully execute.
And the really interesting thing is that Elon speaks pretty clearly about the things they are doing that they don't know how they will come out, and this sets up an interesting cognitive dissonance in investors. When you tell someone "this date is the one we put out to get alignment of our suppliers, we assumed not all of them would be ready." Financial people's heads explode. They struggle with management not knowing exactly what is going to happen with events that are critical to the survival of the company. In their head a little dialogue goes "well if they don't know that, how do they even know they will exist next year?" and I expect the truth is they don't. Operating without a net is something Elon seems to be able to pull off when others can't.
I do think the departures are a challenge though. Coming into an organization at a senior level and learning the strengths and weaknesses of the team is a hugely challenging thing to do. It takes time and if you don't have that time it can be really stressful. You find yourself counting on teams to deliver that you have no idea whether or not they have what it takes. So you are hyperfocused on everything and keeping your baloney detector set to max sensitivity to try quickly identify what is working and what isn't. It has to make replacing people at that level very difficult indeed.