There is a nuanced economic issue related to this priced drop.
Today, (and for some time in the past) solar panels can be an investment, that is paid off by the amount that is saved by not having to use the grid (for example.)
So a homeowner might calculate that by investing $20,000 in solar panelling today, they can have a 100% return within 72 months (6 years). It's free if they manage to use it for 6 years. Afterward the fact that this paneling is installed is "profit" - they get the ongoing money from their savings.
So they are motivated by self-interest to make this investment, even if they assign "$0" to how much it's worth to them to reduce their carbon footprint on the planet; they don't have to care.
But look at what happens if they consider that the investment price will drop by 50% in the next 18 months. Then they will have a 100% return in 36 months, plus the 18 months they wait means their investment is repaid in 54 instead of 72 months. Or, perhaps, they can install twice the paneling in 18 months. Either way their ROI is better.
So that means for the next 18 months they are simply continuing to use the grid, which might have a higher carbon footprint. This might, paradoxically, drop adoption of solar paneling today (depending on people's expectation of the price change in the future.)
So then you consider that others are logical actors, and will follow to the same conclusion; meaning that the price won't drop in 18 months and is therefore the proper investment now.
But then you think that others will think this too, so then you should wait.
And then you remember that you should never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.
Today, (and for some time in the past) solar panels can be an investment, that is paid off by the amount that is saved by not having to use the grid (for example.)
So a homeowner might calculate that by investing $20,000 in solar panelling today, they can have a 100% return within 72 months (6 years). It's free if they manage to use it for 6 years. Afterward the fact that this paneling is installed is "profit" - they get the ongoing money from their savings.
So they are motivated by self-interest to make this investment, even if they assign "$0" to how much it's worth to them to reduce their carbon footprint on the planet; they don't have to care.
But look at what happens if they consider that the investment price will drop by 50% in the next 18 months. Then they will have a 100% return in 36 months, plus the 18 months they wait means their investment is repaid in 54 instead of 72 months. Or, perhaps, they can install twice the paneling in 18 months. Either way their ROI is better.
So that means for the next 18 months they are simply continuing to use the grid, which might have a higher carbon footprint. This might, paradoxically, drop adoption of solar paneling today (depending on people's expectation of the price change in the future.)