This is a poorly researched article with many inaccuracies.
(1) Utility Scale Solar is already less <$1/W installed in India, and heading for sub $1.5/W in US.
(2) The price of Solar PV panels is already at $0.40/W. US-based $FSLR is has a roadmap to get to $0.25/W by 2019. In addition PV efficiency is increasing by 10% yoy. This is just from purely riding the 'industrial learning curve'. See [1].
(3) "Value deflation" is a policy issue that has a simple policy solution. As a tech that produces an intermittent product, but has high fixed-costs but zero-marginal costs - solar (like wind) should be financed (and paid for) via a fixed tariff (feed-in tariff or FiT). See [2]. This is how Solar is financed in the rest of the world outside the US. If 'value deflation actually became an issue - then my guess is that regulators in the US would step in (but one can never say with US regulators who tend to get captured by various lobby groups).
(4) Solar will account for 30% of all new capacity power additions going forward globally. This is happening - now. There is over 100,000MW installed globally already.
In addition - every time solar or wind comes up for discussion on HN or elsewhere, the same misconceptions and confusions about baseload, intermittency and costs arise.
To summarise the counter-points again:
(1) Renewables does not need to be base-load or compared to 'base-load'. 'Base-load' is spectrum not a point. See [3]
(2) There is a difference between intermittent and 'unplanned'. Planned vs unplanned is the main issue. Even nuclear has unplanned shut-downs - no tech has a 100% 'capacity factory' running 24/7 365 days. see [4]
(3) Renewables can get to 60-80% penetration via:
(a) increasing efficiencies (happening now)
(b) increasing energy storage efficiencies with declining prices (happening now)
(1) Utility Scale Solar is already less <$1/W installed in India, and heading for sub $1.5/W in US.
(2) The price of Solar PV panels is already at $0.40/W. US-based $FSLR is has a roadmap to get to $0.25/W by 2019. In addition PV efficiency is increasing by 10% yoy. This is just from purely riding the 'industrial learning curve'. See [1].
(3) "Value deflation" is a policy issue that has a simple policy solution. As a tech that produces an intermittent product, but has high fixed-costs but zero-marginal costs - solar (like wind) should be financed (and paid for) via a fixed tariff (feed-in tariff or FiT). See [2]. This is how Solar is financed in the rest of the world outside the US. If 'value deflation actually became an issue - then my guess is that regulators in the US would step in (but one can never say with US regulators who tend to get captured by various lobby groups).
(4) Solar will account for 30% of all new capacity power additions going forward globally. This is happening - now. There is over 100,000MW installed globally already.
In addition - every time solar or wind comes up for discussion on HN or elsewhere, the same misconceptions and confusions about baseload, intermittency and costs arise.
To summarise the counter-points again:
(1) Renewables does not need to be base-load or compared to 'base-load'. 'Base-load' is spectrum not a point. See [3]
(2) There is a difference between intermittent and 'unplanned'. Planned vs unplanned is the main issue. Even nuclear has unplanned shut-downs - no tech has a 100% 'capacity factory' running 24/7 365 days. see [4]
(3) Renewables can get to 60-80% penetration via:
(a) increasing efficiencies (happening now)
(b) increasing energy storage efficiencies with declining prices (happening now)
(c) geographical grid-integration (happening slowly)
(d) more flexible software-led demand-side and supply-side management (happening). See [5]
[1] http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-14/first-sola...
[2] http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/3-ways-renewable...
[3] http://cleantechnica.com/2016/03/02/base-load-power-is-a-myt...
and http://cleantechnica.com/2014/08/08/rmi-blows-lid-baseload-p... [short video in article]
[4] http://www.energypost.eu/dispelling-nuclear-baseload-myth-no...
[5] Links on renewable energy penetration potential
- NREL Analysis of how to achieve high-penetration renewables in US http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/
- Ramez Naam http://rameznaam.com/2016/01/31/how-far-can-renewables-go-pr...
- California http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2016/04/04/what-will-california-...