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Link Bait title. They didn't plunge 25% in February. This is a 25% plunge from the same time last year.



When did the new meme become calling everything link bait? These metrics are measured year over year, so there's nothing remotely misleading about it.


Link bait or not, it's objectively grim news. Chinese February trade data shows exports -25.4% yoy (vs. -14.5% market expectation), and imports down -13.8% yoy (vs. -12% market expectation). Market expectations factor in seasonality.

So lower than expected overseas demand for Chinese exports, and simultaneously lower than expected Chinese domestic consumption. It's a double-whammy negative for Chinese economic production...

Here's some analysis from HSBC covering both Jan & Feb (so figures are different):

Exports for January-February period declined by 17.9% y-o-y, the lowest since 2012. Exports to all major markets saw broad-based weaknesses, with shipments to ASEAN countries contracting the most. Unfavourable base effects and possible seasonal reasons aside, weak external demand is still the main reason for today’s export slump. Imports remained in deep contraction in Jan-Feb despite the recent stabilisation in commodity prices, and this mostly reflected sluggish domestic demand...

...Overall, YTD trade data pointed to an increasingly challenging demand environment for China’s exports, which will likely put further pressure on domestic production. With risks to growth on the downside, and little support from external demand, a more decisive stimulus package targeted at lifting domestic demand and countering deflation is warranted.




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