The math here is interesting for the republicans. A candidate has to confirmed by the senate judiciary committee (11/9 republican) then the whole senate (54/46 if the independents go dem as usual).
The general consensus, however, is that the democrats have a good chance at winning back the senate.
So the question for republicans is, do they accept a moderate candidate now, or stall until the election and risk having a democratic senate (and president, but that race is far too early to have a sense of, unlike the senate), and take the heat for taking 3-4 times as long as usual to confirm a justice, and have any cases under review potentially go 4 to 4 on the court, which means the lower court rulings in those cases stand, or the justices can request that they be re-argued.
For the democrats, you've got the current situation vs a chance to get someone more liberal in during 20 days of obama + the next senate (although pushing a nominee through in jan 2017 would have terrible optics), or waiting. Your risk is that the republicans win the senate and the president.
My sense is that the democrats will put forth someone fairly moderate, but it's hard to tell if the senate will stall it out or not. It likely depends on the nominee.
The Republicans hold all the cards, but the dems are probably in a slightly stronger position, because they only need two republican senators on the judiciary to decide that they'd rather not risk it, and two more in the full senate.
The Republicans have more or less already announced that they will refuse to consent to a replacement this term. That could change if Hillary wins (she will likely take the Senate with her if she does), but, the odds-on outcome is: Obama nominates someone, but no Obama nomination is confirmed.
It's not just that it's an election year, but that it's a closely divided Senate with a liberal President replacing the most reliable and influential conservative on the Court.
They're obviously going to say that now (keep in mind so far the people who've said that are Cruz who is on judiciary but will never approve any Dem candidate and McConnell who doesn't matter.)
The ones who matter most are probably Flake and Tillis since they're the least conservative among the judiciary members not up for reelection.
I think we'll see an initial stall for sure, and then in a few months it will depend on how polls are going, both in the senate and national races. Hillary + dem senate is the nightmare scenario for republicans, so they're likely to make a deal if that's still a strong possibility in July.
I agree that the 2016 election becoming a foregone conclusion is a circumstance in which a nomination might happen, but it's the only one. Equally importantly, by the time the election becomes reasonably predictable, Obama will be butting up against the limits of the window in which he can get a nomination through even in favorable conditions.
Obama will not replace Scalia. I like the Dem's chances this cycle and so am not despondent about this.
The general consensus, however, is that the democrats have a good chance at winning back the senate.
So the question for republicans is, do they accept a moderate candidate now, or stall until the election and risk having a democratic senate (and president, but that race is far too early to have a sense of, unlike the senate), and take the heat for taking 3-4 times as long as usual to confirm a justice, and have any cases under review potentially go 4 to 4 on the court, which means the lower court rulings in those cases stand, or the justices can request that they be re-argued.
For the democrats, you've got the current situation vs a chance to get someone more liberal in during 20 days of obama + the next senate (although pushing a nominee through in jan 2017 would have terrible optics), or waiting. Your risk is that the republicans win the senate and the president.
My sense is that the democrats will put forth someone fairly moderate, but it's hard to tell if the senate will stall it out or not. It likely depends on the nominee.
The Republicans hold all the cards, but the dems are probably in a slightly stronger position, because they only need two republican senators on the judiciary to decide that they'd rather not risk it, and two more in the full senate.