I'm old enough to remember Pons-Fleischmann. But not so old as to forget the more recent faster than light neutrinos social media storm. I've been thinking about the nature of scientific claims for more than twenty years. Few people are intentionally wrong: that doesn't mean astronomers as men of science didn't sware by the Ptolemaic cosmology.
To be clear, I am not denying the possibility of the earth expanding in and contracting in what passes for space time. I am skeptical of the proposition that the instruments are measuring the collisions of black holes is methodologically sound.
The careful preparation and engineering that occurred before LIGO was constructed resulted in an instrument that ran from 2002 to 2010 without detecting gravitational waves. The consequence of this $400 million experiment was not reexamining the theory, but sinking another $200 million into an instrument that created good tweetable data. That's the way careers and politics and human nature works.
There are three components to the theory. Spatial change, gravitational waves, and colliding massive bodies. The reason I am skeptical is that the scientists are inferring two of them: gravitational waves and colliding black holes from the component most likely to have other causes. If I had the mountaintop shells and the flood, god would be more plausible. If I have the shells and god, the flood is. Two outta three is my threshold for reasonable scientific inference in this case.
If you're not denying the possibility, then what exactly are you trying to say here? That you're skeptical that the experiment detected anything, or that the "anything" it detected is what they are saying it is?
Clearly the first can and will be found out over time as other detectors are being built to replicate these findings. However, I believe there is enough scrutiny of their claims that this kind of skepticism can likely be ruled out.
The second, that their story doesn't fit the data, is kind of odd to me. Gravity is so weak and the detectors they are creating are still so new that it seems likely that colliding massive bodies would be the first kinds of things they would pick up. Just as with early telescopes where objects that were very close or very bright were the first ones to yield useful data.
If you have another explanation that you believe fits the data better, put it forward and try and find a way to test it. That's how science works. But this is not the kind of thing that is going to collapse in a heap of logic. Data and the scientific method doesn't work like that.
Maybe it would help to re-frame the relevant part of the (apparent) argument:
Oscillations show up everywhere in nature, and even a pattern as specific as a frequency sweep with ringdown could be the result of many different phenomena. Even if in this case many possible sources have been ruled out, there must be others that we do not know about. Since the only observation we have to go on is the signal (so far), we should remember that the cause implied by the model is contingent on the signal not being one of these unknown sources.
Some commentary: Imagining alternative explanations is only half of the work that comes next. Once more of these alternatives are found, we also need new experiments that will be designed to rule them out. It sounds like the space-based interferometers will go a long way toward ruling out potential "terrestrial" factors. And if the same signal is detected in both ground-based and space-based systems that is an even greater step forward.
To be clear, I am not denying the possibility of the earth expanding in and contracting in what passes for space time. I am skeptical of the proposition that the instruments are measuring the collisions of black holes is methodologically sound.
The careful preparation and engineering that occurred before LIGO was constructed resulted in an instrument that ran from 2002 to 2010 without detecting gravitational waves. The consequence of this $400 million experiment was not reexamining the theory, but sinking another $200 million into an instrument that created good tweetable data. That's the way careers and politics and human nature works.
There are three components to the theory. Spatial change, gravitational waves, and colliding massive bodies. The reason I am skeptical is that the scientists are inferring two of them: gravitational waves and colliding black holes from the component most likely to have other causes. If I had the mountaintop shells and the flood, god would be more plausible. If I have the shells and god, the flood is. Two outta three is my threshold for reasonable scientific inference in this case.