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"just" 8 have won nobels and "just" 1% end up in the national academy of sciences? this is unimpressive compared to what?

this article is just bad science and lazy writing. before we can even entertain his conjecture we need two data sets, easily calculable by anyone with freshman college math:

x% of child prodigies become nobel prize winners or national science foundation award winners. the distribution of other scientific achievements for such prodigies has a median of y and spread of z.

a% of STEM college graduates become nobel prize winners / national academy members. the distribution of other accolades is b with a spread of c.

x,y,z compares how with a,b,c

the results can be interpreted different ways but at least we have a starting point for rational discussion. the rest of his article is mere conjecture with emotional posturing with an agenda.




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