I'd say it's a hazard, but not necessarily a given. The current cultural and economic interconnectedness of the globe is profoundly unprecedented in all of human history, no reason why old patterns should repeat themselves.
... except those that are still around. I'm not sure how that logic can work. You're essentially saying "immortality is impossible because the people who are dead aren't still alive".
He's essentially saying that historically the odds are vastly in favour of every empire eventually falling. The "American empire" is a historical shortlived blip compared to many other empires that eventually fell.
The idea that the USA is a superpower is antiquated and I am still surprised people think it is. It is unquestionably the strongest country but it isn't able to just unilaterally impose its will.
Obama's most notable legacy for me has been the acknowledgement of this and realising that the USA is far stronger and far more successful leading multilateral coalitions.
We absolutely are an empire... which is failing rapidly. But don't take my word for it - Lawrence Wilkerson[1] as a much better explanation[2] of the travails of the American Empire.
[1] retired Colonel and former chief of staff to Sec. of State Colin Powell
sorry, should have put quotation marks, I meant it a bit facetiously. Usually articles about America's decline have that sort of bent to it ("Emperor has no cloths", etc.)
I do think that the US gets away with much more stuff than it would in another universe. Especially in the financial domain (American sanctions work so well because of the virality of the regulations and the ubiquity of the dollar). But hey, Russia annexed a part of Ukrain, so they're not the only one.
