There's always the status quo - that the majority of content producers will simply continue to make content using Flash that the iPhone and iPad can't access, and users mostly live with it with the occasional grumble, while the bigger providers will largely create dedicated applications to work-around the issue (and that isn't going to kill Flash).
Let's get some perspective here. The iPhone currently represents around 0.45% of all web browsing (citation: http://www.macsimumnews.com/index.php/archive/net_applicatio...). The iPhone's dent in Flash's market share represents at most a drop from 99% to 98%. For the iPhone and iPad to get the marketshare of Opera, this usage would need to triple. Would you radically redesign how your site works for Opera users? Developers do follow what their users have, but little has changed and users still have Flash.
To make matters worse, there's no drop-in replacement. For the most common use-case of audio and video, we're in standards hell -- Firefox and Internet Explorer make up over 80% of web browsers on the Internet between them, and Mozilla aren't going to support the H.264 video tag and Microsoft are unlikely to support it in IE either. And in many other cases, websites are using Flash to do things they simply can't do in HTML (or even HTML5), whether DRM, streaming video, or something vastly more complicated.
Let's get some perspective here. The iPhone currently represents around 0.45% of all web browsing (citation: http://www.macsimumnews.com/index.php/archive/net_applicatio...). The iPhone's dent in Flash's market share represents at most a drop from 99% to 98%. For the iPhone and iPad to get the marketshare of Opera, this usage would need to triple. Would you radically redesign how your site works for Opera users? Developers do follow what their users have, but little has changed and users still have Flash.
To make matters worse, there's no drop-in replacement. For the most common use-case of audio and video, we're in standards hell -- Firefox and Internet Explorer make up over 80% of web browsers on the Internet between them, and Mozilla aren't going to support the H.264 video tag and Microsoft are unlikely to support it in IE either. And in many other cases, websites are using Flash to do things they simply can't do in HTML (or even HTML5), whether DRM, streaming video, or something vastly more complicated.