The Java-on-the-iPhone critics were less numerous from the start (or at least were not as vocal). But you're right, though; I think it's easier now to wonder if Java would offer anything compelling to the iPhone platform anyway (other than offering another way to run your own code, which is a different discussion entirely).
As to your second question: Java is a fundamentally important language in its own right (the enterprise angle); its success was never really tied to the availability of client-side runtimes. Flash doesn't quite have that same luxury.
Ultimately, what made Java on the iPhone irrelevant was the fact that the App Store was dominated by hobbyists and independent programmers. Java is not a hobbyist's language; it is the language that the non-technical corporate executives tell you to use. Objective-C and Cocoa were a fun enough environment that individuals were willing to learn how to use them in order to cash in on the iPhone App gold rush. The iPad will probably get more attention from corporate software developers, but it will also be getting a lot more attention from the hobbyists who are drooling over the possibilities of the big multitouch screen, and they are the ones who will be creating the truly innovative apps.
(Yes, there are now sound technical reasons to use Java in enterprise environments, but that's only because Sun's marketing got it into the corporations in the first place. Java was originally intended for embedded systems, and later for web browsers. It's completely failed on both platforms.)
Except you don't run Java code, you run JVM byte code, and there are an increasing number of entertaining ways to do that without writing any Java.
The prospect of writing iStuff apps using Scala, Clojure (and one day I hope [J]Ruby) should be awfully appealing to innovative hobbyists, perhaps more so than using ObjC
Yes, it is, but it is currently not used for production.
Dalvik does not care about language, it converts java class files to dex file. However, Scala/Clojure/etc have runtimes with quite significant initialization time, that gets lost on desktop, but not on mobile devices. Scala is getting there with minimal runtime, but Clojure still initializes too much and the startup time of Clojure application on Android is atrocious.
I'm kind of second-guessing my thought as well. In the early days (well, the first year, really) of the iPhone Apple was steadfast in their idea that everything would be web-based. No SDK needed.
The concern over Java at that point was if it was going to be allowed on the phone at all. JME/J2ME was what the mobile industry was trending toward. The success of Cocoa Touch and the App Store has pretty much made J2ME a footnote (except for the few carriers still hanging on).
Apple was steadfast in their idea that everything would be web-based.
Is there an actual quote to back this up? I was paying close attention back in the "shit sandwich" days and I don't recall this "steadfast" insistence being actually stated by anyone from Apple. What I do remember was just a big disappointment at the time and Apple's usual silence on future plans. And the web SDK they did offer did actually end up getting used widely, as Gruber mentions in this article.
I'm not trying to argue, I just see this idea that Apple never planned a native SDK is repeated so often and yet it doesn't fly with what I remember.
I totally understand. In the flurry of it all we've all forgotten what you remembered: Apple never said anything to the point of "No SDK. Ever."
Aside from Jobs' WWDC 2007 address there were rumors and signals that "web was all you're gonna get"[1][2], but obviously they planned an SDK that eventually was announced 9 months after the reveal. Or developer pressure convinced the staff to polish the internal tools and APIs for public use? I'm kind of sad that with the new secretive Apple, we'll never know the full story behind the scenes for a long long time to come.
The ease and user experience of Cocoa Touch and Android make J2ME apps look so slow and ugly that I don't honestly believe any consumer will put up with those kind of devices for much longer.
About a year ago I sat in a meeting with a carrier that proclaimed "We're not worried about iPhone" but in the same breath asked "so, how can we get an App Store running for our handsets?"
As to your second question: Java is a fundamentally important language in its own right (the enterprise angle); its success was never really tied to the availability of client-side runtimes. Flash doesn't quite have that same luxury.