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While it's technically +EV numerically, it's not really +EV functionally, due to the high variance / extremely low odds and the value of a dollar when you have none vs the value of a dollar when you have half a billion.

At +EV, it would mean, if I put in $60,000, I would expect to get more than $60,000 back, and on average that's correct, though odds are still that the $60k will go to waste.

Furthermore, after the first $100 million, the next $100 million isn't really going to change much in utility, and each dollar becomes worth less as you go further out, so at odds of 1 in 200m, it doesn't really pay off unless you already have the $200m to place the bet. When you take into account that the pot might get split with multiple winners, that's a massive risk you take.

I don't think this is really viable until you have odds of 1 in 5 or 10 million with +EV, but at that point, you've got multiple people, hedge funds, etc, that can get together and buy the winnings.




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