Nice to see you read my entire post which does very much reference point 2. The whole "they knew in advance" thing is getting into massive conspiracy theory territory where a shedload of relatively junior people know a massive secret and have all managed to keep it. Whilst also of course going and telling a load of civilians about said secret.
On the radar point I've love you to explain why it is ridiculous. Ground based radar is sited in a way to reduce the blindspots created by terrain features. Given Pakistan has viewed Afghanistan as a client state essentially since the Soviet pullout, yet is terrified of India it is surely credible that detecting low flying aircraft coming from Afghanistan is not top of the priority list when it comes to siting their radar?
I like that your conspiracy theory involves a government secretly being much more competent than it claims to be.
You don't keep conspiracies secret by keeping quiet, you keep them secret by burying them in confusing noise -- plausible deniability. This is why we have crazy stories about flying saucers and people still believe carrots improve your eyesight. The truth is out there mixed up with all kinds of half truth and bullshit.
Radar is arranged to create overlapping coverage and handle planes flying weird courses (and switching to secondary targets and flying home). It's possible the US knows Pakistans air defence grid so well that it could pull this off but it wouldn't be because their radar is pointed at India.
Governments claim incompetence to cover up stuff all the time. "We lost those records." Suggesting that the Pakistani government is incapable of doing this is silly.
On the radar point I've love you to explain why it is ridiculous. Ground based radar is sited in a way to reduce the blindspots created by terrain features. Given Pakistan has viewed Afghanistan as a client state essentially since the Soviet pullout, yet is terrified of India it is surely credible that detecting low flying aircraft coming from Afghanistan is not top of the priority list when it comes to siting their radar?
I like that your conspiracy theory involves a government secretly being much more competent than it claims to be.