You're right, and I misunderstood. I'm a computer programmer trying to rapidly learn enough about probability theory to be able to communicate with some theoretical statisticians regarding causality, confounding, and longitudinal data analysis. I have a decent intuitive grasp of what's happening, but no ability to convey anything with proper terminology. I could certainly use a better grasp of the basics, and I'm trying to figure out where to start. Thanks for the links.
Okay, for that stuff probability theory is too abstract. For basic basics, Edward Tufte has a $2 ebook that's pretty good: Data Analysis For Politics And Policy[1] and for terminology in causality, Rubin has a short open access paper[2]. For a freshman-stats level treatment, OpenStax college's book looks legitimate but I haven't actually read it carefully[3].
