Easily, I have a somewhat working understanding of the SAP version we run in my head, LLMs love hallucinating columns or endpoints that do not exist. I‘m sure the full SAP documentation easily clears 2 mil tokens. And thats not even touching our own codebase.
> -completely demolish their entire military export potential
Which buyer have they lost? I fail to see any. Most of their customers distrust the US and Turkey didn’t denounce their contracts as far as I know.
> -lose all kinds of prestige the „mighty“ russian military had
Did they? That’s unclear to me. Wagner is in more countries than ever.
> -severely diminish the arms stocks they had left over from the Soviet Union
Their defence industry output is the highest it has ever been and wasn’t stopped by the various embargo they are under.
> -publically had one of their mercenary companies march on their capital in revolt
Before Putin very publicly showing that he is still the sole master of the country. With Russian propaganda on the ground, it wasn’t ever a minor setback for them.
Plus, give it six months more and they might have humiliated the west by actually mostly winning the war with Ukraine which everyone say they would never win.
I know the western media needs to parrot that Russian is the complete loser here to keep support high but the reality doesn’t seem that clear to me.
Don’t get me wrong I’m not saying it’s an overwhelming victory from Russia. I’m saying that if you look at it like if Russia had overwhelming lost, you will completely misanalyse both the situation today and its implication for the future.
> Plus, give it six months more [...] mostly winning the war
I'd agree even two weeks ago, but then Kursk happened. So far, Russia's response to that has been weak. While it will be hard for Ukraine to use that as a foothold to advance deeper into Russia due to geography (mountains and rivers, I'm told), it will also be challenging for Russia to take back the territory. It's also not a big enough threat to "endanger the existence of the Russian state", so they probably won't be using tactical nukes there. With that, "winning" is going to be very hard - it looks much more like a tie now. What are your thoughts on that?
The US election will be key. Trump already said he wasn’t going to maintain the founding at the same level of help as today. Germany is already pulling out. Ukraine is entirely dependent of foreign founds to sustain its campaign.
Plus the situation regarding troops on the ground didn’t change. Ukraine didn’t rotate enough and is reluctant to conscript more. Soldiers are tired and morale is low.
Kursk is there to try to extend the front and have Russia pull troops out of the north. It’s mostly guerilla warfare on a weakly protected area. They don’t have the man power nor the logistic means required to prevent Russia from retaking the region but doing so means that Russia will stop pushing further into Ukraine for some time. It was sorely needed but it’s a stopgap measure not a complete revirement unless something else happens.
It has changed the timeline however. I expect Russia to stall until the US election to see if it’s better to enter negotiations now or keep fighting.
For starters twitter is settled with about 12 billion in expensive debt as part of the purchase which cost about a billion of year in interest alone [0].
See [1] there was a recent scandal where some sort of ai app recommended a recipe that results in deadly chlorine gas as a (by)-product, I can definitely see why LLM-halucinations could be super dangeorous with recipes, I‘m unlinkely to kill someone if ChatGPT suggest a method in a module that does not exist.
My argument would be that it caps out at a certain point where more money stopes equalling higher win%, I have played a lot of high level magic tournaments and budget was never really something that impacted the meta game at the higher levels.
I always compare it to something like golf, my nearest golf club is 1500€/year, the equipment would probably be another 500 or so, does this make golf a play-to-win game or just an expensive hobby?
E: Ironically the thing thats most pay-to-win about magic is the way tournaments used to be ran, being actually competitive at a decent level involves 1-2 trips to different cities on the continent a month, with the occasional trip to a different continent thrown in. In my competitive years I spend like 1k/year on cards, pulled in 2k/year in winnings and spent probably 8k in flights and hotel costs.
In a vacuum that is true, but for MrBeast in particular his entire shtick around content is „look at me spending outrageous amounts of money on this video“, there are probably Holywood movies out there that have a better revenue/cost ratio than some of his stuff.
I presume its about what to „save“ as in „saving face“, i.e. keeping your reputation intact vs. „Saving ass“, i.e. staying alive/in power.
Keeping up the facade of this being a „special military operation“ left alive the excuse of „we are not really trying all that hard to win this“ whereas (partial) mobilization more signlas towards „this is going south lets do whatever works to end this“
Sort of funny story, the concept of this build (spell loop) is currently meta, sadly the servers have improved to the point that they don‘t crash anymore.
Yes, some background, he had about a 10% stake in BBBY and sold out of it during the recent bull-run, the announcement of the sale caused the stock to crater 60% or so.
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