mihoda's comments

On: The Wrong-Apartment Problem: Restrictive zoning makes a good economy feel bad

[mihoda]

This is way too real.

We put off kids because of housing.

On: Want fewer car accidents? Remove traffic signals and road signs (2017)

[mihoda]

Examples near me: Gilman St and 580/80, Eastshore freeway (a street), and frontage. Unsigned. Terrible asphalt. Slow and safe.

Marin and Masonic (bart track underpass): flashing red most of the day lately -> safe.

On: Judeo-Christian roots will ensure US military AI is used ethically, general says

[mihoda]

Where have we heard that before?

On: There's a way to get healthier without even going to a gym. It's called NEAT

[mihoda]

What a long-winded way of saying car oriented infrastructure has destroyed our health.

On: The 30-year mortgage is an intrinsically toxic product (2018)

[mihoda]

1) your argument is right 2) but it hasn't been an average of every 7 years in at least 30 years.

It's 13.2 years. And perhaps it shouldn't be. There's lots of foregone opportunities when you stick in a home and don't move to better employment.

On: The 30-year mortgage is an intrinsically toxic product (2018)

[mihoda]

Where are you finding 3% mortgages?

On: The 30-year mortgage is an intrinsically toxic product (2018)

[mihoda]

The math is simple.

In the East Bay right now the cash flow (mortgage + prop tax + maintenance) alone for home ownership is 2.5x my rent for an identical property. It comes down to 2.2x when factoring in mortgage interest deduction and rises back to 2.3x when considering opportunity cost of capital.

I did a broader analysis and came up with 1.75-2.25x for other homes.

For a rational actor to buy a home right now, it implies a 5-6% expected return on the home price every year for an average of 10 years.

On: It Takes Long to Become Gaussian

[mihoda]

I, a dumb person, simulated sequences of draws and convergence seems way slower than the first poster indicates.

# R lang

samples = 1000

sample_len = 10000

x <- sapply(1:samples, function(i) cumsum(runif(sample_len)))

check_sample_at_len = sample_len

plot(density(x[check_sample_at_len,]))