Explosives are surely up in revenue now (double, triple?) and the world is using about every drop of production for both (as with every supply chain).
So, a +/- of $3B is a 16% shock to the fertilizer market. That is plus one year of explosives, but if you are going to war, you might need several years, all at once (pow). We are talking about future prices in the grand scheme.
That is in gross, too, we don't know specific chemical or supply bottlenecks: one kink in ammonia might not mean much except for fertilizer production; if ammonia is produced via hydrocarbon extraction, then fertilizer is not only dependent on energy prices, but competing directly with wartime energy supply.
A 1 ton bomb is pretty good sized, a million of those would be 1% of the mass of a year's fertilizer production.
A B-52 can carry about 30 tons, so that is 33,000 sorties of a B-52. The US has 76 of those, that would be 434 sorties per aircraft. I can picture the B-52 fleet dropping that many bombs in a year.
Fertilizer prices are rising in part because ammonia production is a rather energy intensive process and the price of natural gas used to produce ammonia is way up due to war time shortages. Ammonia, of course, is the primary source material for nitrogen based fertilizers.
The production of fertilizers such as ammonium nitrate and urea require ammonia. Ammonia is synthesized on large scales with the Haber-Bosch process. This process requires hydrogen, which is obtained by steam reforming of methane in natural gas.
When natural gas prices exploded in Europe, many fertilizer factories had to stop production:
Supply chain issues, logistics problems, and high demand lead to rising prices which lead the largest exporter of phosphate fertilizer, China, to halt exports to protect domestic supply. Russia is the biggest exporter of potassium fertilizer.
I would suggest that fertilizer prices are higher due to cost increases to manufacture them but also because grain prices are higher. There seems to be a relationship between the 2 which is independent of actual costs to manufacture the inputs. As grain prices increase input costs increase, likewise with the inverse, grain prices decrease input prices decrease. Supply and demand for sure but there seems to be market forces outside of simply supply vs demand.
Why is this world so backwards? Humans have musical ability, and cognition requires training (that's opposite of OP).
You don't train on music, you train on technique (and practice music, or play).
You were not born with the innate "cognitive ability" to know what these symbols mean, you must train yourself to recognize them, read them in many configurations, iow stay training or go dumb.
The link OP found is the same link between spending extra on education and the expected outcome.
The US military recently launched a Stinger replacement effort, has just solicited bids, expects production start in (fiscal year) 2027.
(OTOH, in addition to transfers to Ukraine, it's also ramped up its own Stinger deployment recently specifically in response to the crisis in Ukraine.)
