Martingale is dumb, but i think that's the point, it's telling you what not to do because the only way to recover your initial lost bet is to have a larger bank than the house (and why casinos restrict max bets, $2000 max, $10000 max) - martingale fails.
If you just gotta have a betting system because it helps quell the gambling anxiety or whatever, reverse martingale is fine. I made a video a long time ago about how it works[0] - but in essence, you only stand to lose your initial bet, and you have a bet schedule if you start winning. In "bet units" the way i do it is 1 unit until a win, then for each consecutive win: 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5 (etc). Everything after the first 3 unit bet is the casino's money you're gambling with, which is a good feeling. Note, this implies i consider each "round" that starts after a loss as separate from other rounds, obviously if you lose 20 times in a row and then win 3 games you're not suddenly in the green!
There's no system guaranteed to make you winner, but there are systems to help you lose more slowly, and reverse martingale is my go-to
CGNAT needs to be routed around, which means you need at least a "$5 VPS" with a routable IP address to bastion for you. If you monitor the word "wifi" on social media it's a pretty decent proxy for where CGNAT is prevalent. Used in a sentence, "we just got wifi at the new house."
I've written a couple guides on this and subjects like it; i've had to use squid in a datacenter to forward proxy my lightning detector at the house, otherwise it would never receive a heartbeat - even though it would auth and start trying to send data; i've bypassed CGNAT so i could host console "co-op" games (diablo III, for example); and i've "mirrored" my phone media sync to a colocated server as well, just to avoid trying to route around (triple?) CGNAT to my synology at home.
CGNAT is a scourge, but at least around me, it doesn't seem to be the norm for residential wired internet.
5G yes; starlink, I think so?; geosynchronous satellite, I don't know, but probably. T-Mobile 5G fixed location internet does offer static IPs if you have a SMB account with an EIN, but not for home accounts or SMB with a SSN.
> at least around me, it doesn't seem to be the norm for residential wired internet.
It used to be rare in France, too, but now it seems to be spreading. AFAIK SFR, one of the major ISPs, doesn't even offer the option (paid or otherwise) to avoid it.
Edit: they do provide what looks like a fixed IPv6, though.
SFR will switch you from cgnat to ipv4 if you contact customer support and explain that you work from home and need to open specific ports to access your work servers or VPN. I did just this a month ago. Takes less than 24 hours and you should be OK on ipv4.
> It used to be rare in France, too, but now it seems to be spreading. AFAIK SFR, one of the major ISPs, doesn't even offer the option (paid or otherwise) to avoid it.
They realised they can sell the ipv4 blocks for far more and most consumers don't know any better or care. At least I keep my ipv4 adres if I keep the connection up (dhcp lease time is ignored, it is 4 hours despite dhcp saying 24). Asking for a ipv6 adres is like shouting into the void and waiting for an echo which never comes.
Note for the unfamiliar that ISP (CG) NAT is not at all universal, nor always mandatory when initially present; my past several carriers all issued public IPv4 and public IPv6 /64 or greater that were accessible if I set the appropriate settings. Caveats apply; i.e. the AT&T BGW320 routers seem to cap at 8192 connections even when in bridging mode. Such are the tradeoffs of buying residential rather than business service. (The else-described proxies can be a cost-effective counter to this and other such concerns, i.e. dynamic IP assignments versus dyndns update intervals.)
Odd, I never heard of this. So I might be sharing a public IPv4 address with a neighbor?
I run a server out of my bedroom with a TON of services on it. I used to use google domains + DDNS + nginx reverse proxy to manage it, and I still use that for two services that wasn't playing nice with cloudflare (jellyfin + tubearchivist), but now mostly use cloudflare tunnels. For the two services, I just pray my IP address doesn't change. For some reason, it doesn't.
But I never new I might be sharing that IP address. I've never had routing issues, does that mean I'm lucky? Is this like, a major security vulnerability I've exposed users (just friends) of my hosted services to? Maybe because I'm in Taiwan our ISPs just operate a lot differently? For example, not a single complaint at terabytes up/down every month.
If you've got Chunghwa/HiNet, you most likely don't suffer from CG-NAT. They're the most expensive offer because they're the best offer.
If you're with those shitty resellers, you 99% will get CG-NATed. You pay 50% of the CHT price, but you get 25% the quality. You see this in large apartment buildings: They take Chunghwa fiber and resell it, NAT the entire building into the 192.168.0.0/16 block to save on costs, because IPv4 is $$$. Forget about IPv6 support. The bandwidth they have is oversold, so the 400M you bought might not actually reach those speeds during peak hours, unless you're lucky enough to be living in a new building where more than half the apartments are vacant.
I have some experience with the latter. Their support staff is often utterly incompetent, too.
This sounds like the solution the provider offered when they commercialised my student internet connection. A building with over 1k connections had 4 ipv4 adresses and no proper cgnat. This means you get niceties like:
* Everyone gets their neighbors favourite language in the search engine if you have a incognito session.
* Only about 32k sessions possible per adres. And yes you can claim them all and kill everyone's internet connection.
* All local ip's were interconnected and not firewalled. That was fun.
* You get banned or soft throttled everywhere due to "strange behaviour".
They were doing it on the cheap and fortunately got told it would void their contract if they did not provide something better and it was "fixed" after about a year. But during rush you would still end up maxing the 4gbit fiber uplink even with only a fast ethernet connection for everyone.
Plenty of alternatives exist - https://github.com/anderspitman/awesome-tunneling. My issue with Funnel is that it includes no auth, exposing you to anyone in the world. I will advocate for zrok.io as I work on its parent project, OpenZiti. zrok is open source and has a free SaaS (as well as auth and hardening in general).
ipv4 space and bandwidth cost non-zero dollars so I'd ask "who is paying and why?"
I'm understand that a significant portion of HN is on fiber or whatever, but not everyone has access to fiber, cable, or even - dare i speak it - DSL. CGNAT was mentioned as being prevalent in the UK and germany almost 6 years ago (for example.) I haven't had a non-cgnat ISP the entire time i've lived in Louisiana, and not for lack of trying. (at&t, t-mobile, at&t fixed wireless (x2!), starlink) I'm not paying >$5/month to solve the problem "but what if i want to self host a public service" to switch to business or whatever, either, that's ridiculous.
edit: also i have colo hardware; i write guides for people who either don't or don't know how. cool if tailscale works. wireguard does too...
Tailscale runs over Wireguard. I'm pretty sure they just subsidise their free plan using earnings from their paid plans. Getting a foot in the door and all that. If devs use it at home, they might vouche for it at work.
Tailscale is essentially a free-to-home-users, paid-for-enterprise very usable frontend to Wireguard. They really make it easy. The free service is paid for by the enterprise users.
a decade? no offense, especially if you're a millennial - ten years isn't that long. I have hundreds of compact disks approaching three times that old. "ad hoc torrent" sounds great, but you're at the whims of seeds, and cease and desist letters. This also doesn't take into account monthly bandwidth "caps".
There's somethings i have for background noise and visuals that i got on YT - what, i should stream it every time? even at 480p this will eat into monthly caps. What about things where i know i have one of the only full (as in needs no fills) copies of some media from the 1990s? Less than 5% of the stuff i keep is contemporaneous with the download date.
If one is just downloading "current" things and then figuring out how to store more of it; then i 100% agree. That's a waste of space and time. Chances are you're paying for the right to stream it, and if you don't care about caps, burn the shareholder money for all i care by streaming it whenever you want to see it. Ideally at 4k.
I'll keep downloading and storing stuff i find important - someday when/if youtube deletes some channels i have backed up, or a production company pulls all their content off of streaming platforms, or a different archive with convoluted steps to access content ceases to exist - i'll still have it, with subtitle files, searchable, locally. It happens a lot more often than you think.
I'm not an avid youtube watcher, but there was a specific user-made video to a rare version of a song that I used to keep coming back to. It's not on Youtube any more. That version of the song isn't even on youtube any more.
I'm fairly lazy / procrastinatey when it comes to things like that, but thank f*ck I yt-dlp'd it (and really not too long before it was taken down - and I don't know why and can't track down why or who made the clip).
Maybe I need to do a search to see if other people are looking for it...
And if anyone cares to know: The Mountains of Madness CD1 (I think) version Idalah Abal by John Zorn / Electric Masada, and the film clip was a bunch of still of various, mostly fringe, some quite gross/confronting art pieces. For me, it fits beautifully with the phrenetic music.
I think there's a big, thick, mental health-related line that separates an archivist from a hoarder.
one of the reasons i try and remember to download playlists or all videos from a channel in at least 480p dates back when a zen landscaper/lawn maint/mower guy's videos got wiped because people doxxed his clients. He was, to us, the audio-visual equivalent of an anti-anxiety medication. He had a "dingo" style mower, where you stand on an articulating platform; behind something that looks like the things they use to wax/clean floors in markets with tile floors.
I hadn't seen many (if any) videos, prior to his, where someone would go "clean up" around either abandoned or neglected properties (like a rental off season or something) - weed-eating the sidewalks and shoveling. It's more common now, i see several different creators doing similar videos now; and things like powerwashing driveways, the carpet ones (those are pretty zen if you like gross, unidentifiable liquids), and a few others.
The closest thing i've found to his stuff is Andrew Camarata (@ on YT), but their videos are much louder in general.
anyhow, all this to say - it spurred me into action. I started using "home server" stuff shortly after.
My cousins had a large collection from i guess the 70s and very early 80s that i read a lot. My mom and aunt had read them too. So one day i bought a new one at the store and brought it home and my mom found it. There was a parody of Edward Scissorhands, and one of the topiaries he made was of a middle finger. I didn't know what that was as she described it (flipping the bird). Apparently that was enough to get it banned in my house.
Incidentally, i got a parent teacher meeting for bringing some stickers from one of my cousin's Mad magazines to school. There was a "POINK" onomatopoeia with a lady's boob and a wardrobe malfunction on one of the stickers, and this was enough to warrant the third degree.
Mad magazine was pretty tame, i never got the puritanism exhibited by everyone around me, especially since they had read the magazine when they were young, and their kids, too, but i read the same ones and suddenly it's taboo?
There's a study about omega3 supplementation that says that if children in a family supplement it, that the parents have a better relationship, even if they don't supplement. I can probably dig it out, given enough time with a search engine.
Another one is D. over the course of three years i managed to help my wife get above 100ng/ml 25-hydroxy-D on a blood test. Of course every doctor called and said "too high" and her Calcium is too high too, but not from the D3, folks, because she takes K2 Mk7. Her calcium is high because she mostly drinks fortified orange juice and was taking 1200mg calcium per day at the direction of her oncologist. She has a lot of chronic issues and we're slowly trying to mitigate everything possible with diet and supplements. The specialist said "stop calcium immediately" and "reduce D for 1 month" only. for those aware her Ca was 10.9 ("good" range is ~9.0 - 10.2). I guarantee that her calcium will go back to normal because of the K2 between now and her next blood panel. note: they don't actually test D levels unless you ask, in general. One might wonder why that is - i know i certainly do.
In fact, i was just about to go to the pharmacy to get Omega-3 supplements when i saw this post. Her chart shows that she must supplement omega 3, since she won't eat baked salmon. My kid already has vitamins with omegas in them.
What i recommend is actually reading studies - completely - and if you have any questions or doubts, befriend researchers in biology or other life sciences that can skim the paper and tell you "meh" or "hey that's cool". Studies contradict, studies may have bad inputs or methodology, the only way to know for sure is to read as many as you can as thoroughly as you can, and if possible, consult experts. Medical doctors of the "PCP" persuasion are not experts, generally.
You could just pay for an examine.com subscription. That’s pretty much what they offer as a service - third party evaluation of studies to provide unbiased advice for different supplements.
the ratio of "playable" to "unplayable" vis a vis FPS or any other measure is around 10000000:1, and that grows even if you never upgrade the hardware. Lots of indie games run fine on old hardware - it's just not that demanding.
Sure a plurality of the 10mm will be shovelware or otherwise bad, but do we have to play FFXVII? COD MWII BOIII WW2?
You don't but lots of gamers want to and the idea that a $200 machine is somehow going to service them is absurd. Hence my original point that the idea a $200 machine will do everything you "need" seems like a stretch unless your needs are well below what's typical for someone who plays video games.
Sounds great, how do you enforce this with the deluge of things like IP cameras and the like from Chinese companies?
100% tariffs? Every outdoor IP camera, for example, is either Chinese manufactured or outlandishly expensive. even a 200% increase in purchase price makes these devices competitive, still.
If you just gotta have a betting system because it helps quell the gambling anxiety or whatever, reverse martingale is fine. I made a video a long time ago about how it works[0] - but in essence, you only stand to lose your initial bet, and you have a bet schedule if you start winning. In "bet units" the way i do it is 1 unit until a win, then for each consecutive win: 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5 (etc). Everything after the first 3 unit bet is the casino's money you're gambling with, which is a good feeling. Note, this implies i consider each "round" that starts after a loss as separate from other rounds, obviously if you lose 20 times in a row and then win 3 games you're not suddenly in the green!
There's no system guaranteed to make you winner, but there are systems to help you lose more slowly, and reverse martingale is my go-to
[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwu-5g3q-2E
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