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This is awesome. Does anyone have a tutorial they recommend for building something like this (preferably in Python)?

https://teachablemachine.withgoogle.com is awesome and it looks super easy to use - but any tutorials if you wanted to learn it the harder way via OpenCV or Darknet?

I found this tutorial from fast.ai but haven't been able to check it out yet: https://course.fast.ai/videos/?lesson=1


I'm an Amazon consultant and I wasn't aware that super urls were black hat until recently. Even today, "gurus" or big Amazon software companies promote urls and launch services.

I think Amazon usually catches on and starts suspending sellers after 6 months to a year after an exploit is discovered but that is a really long time. Even then a lot of these issues are probably small beans compared to the major abuse I see on their platform from Chinese sellers. I can't imagine what kind of counterfeit problems they might have but they have been making changes so I'm sure they'll figure it out within the next year or two. Changes like more seller suspensions for manipulating sales rank, TOS updates, requiring photo ID for new sellers, vendor central updates, and more.

In the long run, it won't matter what third party sellers do because Amz will probably sell directly themselves the 20% of the catalog that makes 80% of their sales whether through their own secret private label brands or their vendor program.


Also want to add that Amazon's customer service/return policy is great and their marketplace makes comparison shopping and thus competition easy ensuring cheap pricing for their customers.


Does anyone know if the Japanese omen about oarfish have any weight? How concerned should we be about events like these?


This is crazy but Peter Thiel and Blake Masters' book Zero to One changed the way I thought about everything. Thiel's thoughts were so contrarian to everything I had learned or thought I knew that it literally changed my reality.

It was kind of like when I learned how to program - what I read in his book - gave me a new lens to interpret how or what I saw in the world. It created a crack that made me wonder what else I wasn't seeing or able to see.

There was a page in there about secrets in plain sight and it bothered me for years because I couldn't understand what he meant until I finally read Conspiracy by Ryan Holiday.


Have you read any of his other books? I loved his TED talks and few lectures that are up on YouTube.


The Coddling of the American Mind which he co-wrote with Greg Lukianoff is an important book about problems faced by the current college-age generation and the effects that social media, helicopter parenting, and certain ideologies have had on them. The Atlantic article it started as is also good, but the book expands and improves on the argument.

It’s less of a classic as the Righteous Mind because it’s more focused on a topical issue. I think it pairs well with Laura Kipnis’s Unwanted Advances.


I used to feel this way and I found that it wasn't productive. What can you do? If you can do something, do it. If you think you can't change the future possible destruction of our ecosystem or millions of people, then you also need to make peace with it.

I think you can either do or not do things without the negativity. I found that the negativity made me think emotionally and not rationally or productively, and also sometimes came off in my conversations with people which was also not helpful-because I was clearly very emotional about the issue.

My thought process is whatever happens, happens. I can't do much to prevent whatever systemic collapse that might happen or not happen. But whatever I can do, I will. When I first learned about this, I thought it meant the future that I took for granted could be nonexistent - the dying happily carefree of systemic collapse part after having a family and growing old. It made me bitter and resentful. What's the point of doing anything if the world's going to go to shit by 2030? I decided to be more optimistic or maybe stoic. Make sure I can do what I can or all I can and not let some potential apocalyptic future darken my life. Sorry if this is a trash comment.


> I decided to be more optimistic or maybe stoic. Make sure I can do what I can or all I can and not let some potential apocalyptic future darken my life.

I am somewhere along this path, trying to find a mindset to cope. Yet I have the feeling that even so, widespread, happiness all but ensures the collapse, as the emergent effect of everyone being happy and living their best life, no matter what they think as they do it, is just as bad. I am sorry about this, sorry to be a bearer of bad news, sorry to bring this darkness out in the world, but honestly there is no way out of this box for humanity.


I am too optimistic about humanity. I think there are billions of humans on Earth and not all are as stupid as some people might presume. In fact I would say if there's any humans that survive, it will probably be the 1% that many people hate. I think even then being in the USA easily increases your survival chances.

At the same time, I have absolutely no doubts what is to come. If this is the end of humanity then so be it. It would be irrational to feel bad because I can't do much to stop a disaster like that. I accepted last year that I will die, everyone I love will die, and even potentially all of humanity will die perhaps in my lifetime, and I have made my peace with it.

I have spent a significant amount of time reading all the ways the dominoes will fall and how people will die. People are dying right now.

Happiness comes from within, not from outside. What happens outside should not affect what you feel inside. That's the mindset I learned from stoicism and reading Victor Frankl. "The one thing you can’t take away from me is the way I choose to respond to what you do to me. The last of one’s freedoms is to choose one’s attitude in any given circumstance."

If you are too emotional and depressed, you will be unproductive/not be able to do much to help, and do you also want to spend the little time you have like that? I choose to enjoy the little life I have with the people I love but not in ignorance. I will do everything I can but I will not let it darken my life and my disposition. I hope that makes sense.


I view our success as a product of evolution. It is the driving factor that got us down out of the trees, cultivating our food and to where we are today.

Would we be putting a little less pressure on the environment without people like Edward Bernays, possibly. However, I think our collective consciousness can put itself a little at ease. As we enter the 6 mass extinction event, it's a natural cycle and if it wasn't us, some other species would dominate the planet.

It's never a bad time to listen to George Carlin's "saving the planet"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c


Thank you. St.Carlin always keeps me grounded.


I think you vastly over-estimate our power.

If the oceans die through acidification and pollution, and all of the insects die we will die as well.


Yes, we'll die, but only 99.99% dead. The remaining surviving will have learned the most costly lesson yet of humanity, and will continue on and rebuild. It sucks, but so did the millions of years of animals murdering each other just so that I could type this and you could read it.


> The remaining surviving will have learned the most costly lesson yet of humanity

I wish I could believe this, but I don't. The cycle will repeat as the collapse passes out of living memory. We will have lost civilization by then, the only records that remain will be the trash heaps that we leave behind.


I expect us to die.

I think you may have misread the intent of my comment.

We're going away.


This isn't a trash comment- this is exactly what I needed to read after reading this article. Thank you!


I'm still on the "affected by negativity" phase. May I ask what concrete actions are you taking (besides being optimistic).

I spent one morning with a group which plants and looks after trees in a reserve near my place. We were putting protections around young saplings so cows wouldn't eat them. It took my team of three the whole morning to put protections around a single sapling.

The whole thing made me sad. There is no way we are going to counteract our consumption with single individual actions like that. So I am looking for ways to be more effective.


I'm doing the basic concrete actions of the eco-friendly conscious like consuming less, avoiding plastic, etc.

I don't think that will do much so I have a bigger dream of eliminating menstrual poverty. I read a book that said if we could educate more women, it could have a significant impact on climate change, and I think menstrual poverty is an easy way to access and help educate the women that probably need it the most. So I am working on creating free resources to help eliminate menstrual poverty in the USA to start with reusable products- and also building a company that sells reusable products but whose mission is to eliminate menstrual poverty. It's not much but it makes me feel better.

Drawdown is the book I read that lists 100 potential solutions to climate change to reverse whatever is happening now, if it's possible. Maybe you can check out the website and see if any of the solutions look interesting to you, and see if there's any way you could help people with them. Volunteering should make you feel happy like you're making a difference. Maybe you will feel a lot better when you can donate your skills to a cause that could move the needle. I am sure you have more skills than planting trees that any organization needs and could appreciate.

https://www.drawdown.org/solutions/women-and-girls/educating...


It seems to me the only thing we can really do is not have children. There are too many people on the planet.


There's more one can do than just that. I do not own or use cars. I try limit my meat consumption (not entirely successful on that front). I changed energy providers to buy from renewables sources. I do not travel by air. I don't have air conditioning.

I also sit on a pile of money, not sure what to do with it. Index stocks contain fossil companies which I don't want to support. Maybe I'll throw some at those silicate weathering pilot projects.


> I try limit my meat consumption (not entirely successful on that front).

You can drastically reduce related emissions by just giving up beef and replacing it witch chicken. IIRC it's something like 1/5 or 1/6th the amount of greenhouse gas emissions pound for pound of meat.


What you write is true but I don't think will be duplicable on a large scale without regulations and pricing negative externalities into products. The free rider problem is a negative aspect of human psychology.


The question is what someone who is aware of the issues and willing to act can do. Just because there are those who act irresponsibly does not prevent you from adjusting your behavior.


It does actually prevent me for adjusting my behavior. I'm a victim of free rider thinking. I'm not going to fall on my sword so to speak and sacrifice whilst almost no one else does.


Please reflect on what you are saying. You stylize yourself as victim when you are actually benefiting from making harmful decisions and then rationalizing that harmful behavior with "but everyone else is doing it too".


I haven't stylized myself as anything other than a person who advocates not having children. I over consume. I've come to grips with this fact. I deal with it by not having children as a means of assuaging my guilt. I've got just one life and I'm going to enjoy it as much as I can. I'm not going to sacrifice for the greater good when it's just me and a handful of other people doing it.


Why not invest in space-faring companies? There are 40 billion earth-like planets out there. Plenty of room for lots of different eco-systems to flourish.


You could also eat a mostly vegan diet, get the world to move towards sustainable farming practices (and away from monoculture crops), and support scaling up nuclear, renewables, and a massive infrastructure overhaul.


It may seem counterintuitive, but if you care about the environment, you should have children. I wrote a whole blog post on this, but the gist is that people are going to have children whatever you decide to do. If people like you, who are thoughtful and conscientious about the future of our species, decide not to have children, then the world will just be filled with the offspring of people who don't really care about the future of our species. And those children will share both the nature and nurture of their parents.

My blog post: http://www.richardjones.org/kids-are-good-for-the-environmen...


Agreed. Raising vegan/vegetarian children and trying to steer them toward effective-altruistic careers around environmental benefit probably has positive expected outcomes for the environmental and political future.


What you write makes sense but I don't feel right about having children. The world sucks and it will suck much more in the coming decades. I have no desire to put my progeny through that mess.


This only makes sense if you assume "caring about the environment" is highly heritable and that individuals "caring about the environment" in the abstract somehow translates into large-scale public policy that's better for the environment (I would suggest available evidence shows that it does not).


As I pointed out, children get their nature and their nurture from their parents. And I don't know how you can reconcile the success of the environmental movement in the developed world in the past 5 decades with your position that somehow people caring about the environment doesn't have any real world effects.


CO2 emissions are not just rising but rising faster. We haven't even gotten the second derivative pointed in the necessary direction.


But you and your significant other are not the only players in the game. There are other people who will have children, regardless of what you do. So your choice is between a future that contains your children, who share your disposition and are indoctrinated by you into a specific worldview, or a world that does not contain them.

How does your side win if it promotes a strategy of not even showing up to the game?


My "side" "wins" in that my [non-existent] children and grandchildren will not suffer and starve on a famine-stricken planet burning itself to death.


I don’t get your position. You’re evidently not concerned with the greater good, only with what your own descendants will experience. But then you’re completely willing to ensure that you will leave no descendants.


I think you're poorly informed, or perhaps in denial about how far down the road we already are: [0] [1] [2]

It's essentially too late for your or my hypothetical descendants to have any effect on "the greater good". The IPCC says either we cut _worldwide_ CO2 emissions by 50% in the next 11 years, or it's game over for +1.5C scenarios: all coral reefs die, along with most of the fish, crop yields down 40% in some places, mass migration and resource wars are likely.

So basically I think it's too late for any "greater good" to come from my having kids, and I believe it's immoral to bring a life into a doomed world just to suffer.

[0] - https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/rcp-85-t...

[1] - https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-story-of-sustainability-in-2018-...

[2] - https://www.rifters.com/crawl/?p=8433


I get the risks. I’m just not a quitter. Somebody has to show up and try and I’m willing to nominate my descendants for that. And I’m pretty sure they’ll be okay with my choice. Many people throughout history have been born into some pretty fucked up situations (slavery, etc.) and decided that life was worth living.


I've thought this too but then you are leaving the future to those who breed more irresponsibly. Another way to look at it would be that we have a responsibility to raise more responsible people.


Hrm, I'm thinking that all the time one spends raising a single child could be spent educating a lot more children to be responsible. Raising != educating of course, but raising individual responsible children doesn't scale the same way that education can.


do both and gain extra insights into humans overall.


I suppose the question is whether the future is a gift or a curse.

Though I agree. It's odd - I've known people who seemed offended by Idiocracy, but couldn't really come up with any flaws in its basic premise (in short, well-educated highly-productive people (for traditional values of productive which is its own debate) tend to have fewer kids, and people are usually like their parents, so over time we'll have fewer people like that).


Yes, this is true. For me the way that I deal with the reality of a planet becoming a shitty place to live is to not have children. It is the best way for me to cope with the situation. People can choose to do otherwise.


Have you considered letting your children decide whether they want to be alive on whatever the future has in store for this planet? Life is optional; they can opt out at any time. But my hunch is that they'll appreciate being alive and decide to make a go of it, however tough it is. After all, there is no alternative; the only life they can have is the one you give them.


I have not considered letting things that don't yet exist decide if they want to exist.


> I've thought this too but then you are leaving the future to those who breed more irresponsibly.

The movie "Idiocracy" addresses this very issue. It's a comedy, and I really enjoyed it.


>It's a comedy

I think you meant prophecy.


While I'm very happy having chosen the path you suggest, I never suggest it to anyone because I think it is not realistic. What do you think the odds are, that the average person can win against one of the strongest primal drives with which every living being is born. Also, people (on average) do need to procreate if society has to continue its existence.


I would agree that having sex is one of the strongest primal drives. However, a drive to have sex =/= a drive to have children. Can you provide a source that shows having children is a natural, inborn drive of humans?


You are looking at it the other way around. The drive is ultimately to spread one's genes. We just invented a way to get enjoyment out of the process without creating offspring. I leave it to you to reach for your favourite search engine or to visit library if you wish to verify that propagating one's genes is one of the primal drives of living beings.


You might have a fundamental misunderstanding of how genetics and evolution work. The spreading of genes is a consequence of having sex, not its goal. There is no higher power that determined "spreading one's genes" as some sort of ultimate drive, then set about finding ways to make it happen.

You can think of it this way:

- Presumably, some mammals would have been born that did not enjoy sex. Those would not procreate and their gene would die out.

- Other mammals would enjoy sex. They would procreate, and their genes would spread.

It's the sex and enjoyment thereof that is the driving force behind procreation. When you hear people saying "the ultimate drive is to spread one's genes," that's just a hand-wavy explanation used for simplification (which, unfortunately, many people have come to interpret too literally - as is often the case when simplification is involved).

It's the same type of simplification as when a nature documentary says "Nature found a way to do X". As if nature is some conscious entity with a will that is working towards achieving some goal.


For the sake of a charitable interpretation and productive dialogue, I'll ignore your first sentence. From the rest, it appears that we are (mostly) in agreement. Genes which are more likely to spread and survive are the genes that remain. Also, it is not evident that many species enjoy sex.


I do have a question, actually, if you will humor me.

Suppose we take two human children - a boy and a girl. We separate them from their parents at age 1 and we isolate them from society. A professional caretaker visits them a few times a day, giving them food and helping them with their necessities. They are taught to communicate in one manner or another, perhaps given access to some form of entertainment.

Now, I'm going to be brutal - for science: the hypothetical boy has been sterilized. He doesn't know it, of course.

At no point do the children learn how humans are born. Nothing in their surroundings is an indication, and the caretaker never tells them.

Also, they never learn that it is "normal" for regular people to have children of their own.

As far as the kids are concerned, no other humans except them and the caretaker exist.

Do you think that:

1) Those children will experience an innate need to have children of their own?

2) What activities will the children undertake to satisfy that need?

Thanks


- Adapting to artificial changes to environment/constraints requires a long time to evolve and that will be through countless generations. So, the example above needs to be thought of through large numbers instead of such a small sample.

- Additionally, consider that you could perhaps fool a duckling to imprint upon someone/something else as his/her mother. This one example is not useful if one were to attempt to disprove that this imprinting behaviour evolved to help the ducklings stay with their mother in a vulnerable period.

To me, this appears clear. However, I am not sure if I've articulated it in a way where you are able to also see where I am going with this.

Cheers


Sorry if my post came off as rude - it was not my intention.


Your comment arrives a bit too late. I already have one child. What else?


That's basically it. Assuming you live in a rich country the facts are that we way over consume. The people who say they are vegan and recycle and whatnot are still way over consuming for the most part. All of those cars, clothes, devices, etc. that they possess are very harmful to the planet. Limit yourself to one child since that is below the replacement rate for population growth. That's my suggestion and my way of dealing with the reality of the world we live in.


>>It seems to me the only thing we can really do is not have children.

And then who pays for your social security checks, pensions and other debt that was raised to fight wars?


This line of reasoning is spurious. The people who consume the most resources also have the lowest fertility rates.

What we can do other than despair and contemplate genocide is transition to a carbon neutral economy. It really only requires political will.


Sorry but your comment doesn't help me. I can not "transition my society to a carbon neutral economy". I don't know how I can "create political will". Can you be more concrete?


You posited an individual act that could only have a result if realized collectively. I posit the same. Make carbon neutral choices as much as possible, in your personal and professional life; conservation works.

As for political will, it is the same: composed of individual wills. Bill McKibben points out that a major impediment to a carbon-neutral future is that fossil fuel reserves are capital; the powerful people that own them need us to remain dependent on fossil fuels so their capital continues to have value. These people mobilize huge resources to support their goals; in the last generation trillions of dollars, representing engineering, resources and manufacturing, that should have gone to developing a carbon neutral economy was squandered in useless wars to secure access to fossil fuel resources in the Middle East.

At the same time these forces are extremely vulnerable to collective action in the form of an organized populace. Creating political will means: educate yourself and your neighbors and discover ways (protest, lecture, lobby) to stymie their agenda and advance your own.


We could always transcend from carbon based life forms to a hybrid silicon-carbon based lifeform by becoming part AI.


>Creating political will means: educate yourself and your neighbors and discover ways (protest, lecture, lobby) to stymie their agenda and advance your own.

Tons of people have been trying this for decades now, and all we have to show for it is Trump and climate denialism. Educating people doesn't seem to actually work in practice.


Blog, tweet, participate in tv, radio shows “, join a political party, join an activist group. Really pick any assembly of people and contribute to the agenda in with any means available. Be a leader.


It's not genocide to not have children. At an individual level the best thing we can do is to not have children if you are in a rich country. Those of us who live in rich countries massively over consume (including myself in this). Going to a carbon neutral economy is not helpful if it isn't done on a world wide scale. Right now rich countries have a nice system whereby they can realistically become carbon neutral in terms of their energy usage but their appetite for consumer goods is one of the main reasons for all of those polluting factories in other countries. Rich countries are outsourcing their pollution.

The resource consumption per capita of a person in the U.S. far exceeds the resource consumption of a person in Afghanistan. One American is more damaging to the world wide environment than a family in Afghanistan. Thus your second statement is not relevant. It is true that Americans have fewer children than people in poor countries. But our overconsumption more than makes up for this deficit.

It really only requires political will.

Are you an American? Because this statement sounds like someone who is not aware of the political reality in the United States.


Not having children is also not helpful if not done on a worldwide scale, so I dont see how your strategy is better.

I am an American, and I remain optimistic that we can fix our politics. In fact I'd say that fixing our politics is exactly the same as manifesting political will. For a generation since the labor movement dwindled there have not been any significant vehicles of popular will at work in American politics. It's past time to change that. To suggest we can't is simply despair - it will be true as long as we believe it, and no further.


The person I originally responded to asked for suggestions to deal with the reality of living on a planet increasingly becoming a shitty place to live. He/she appeared to be having a problem coming to terms with this reality. I suggested not having kids. The suggestion isn't feasible in terms of large scale change. It is feasible in terms of coming to grips with being an over consumer of resources and assuaging the accompanying guilt. At least it has worked for me.


Political reality in america is that there were multiple changes of ruling party in the last decade and MPs being voted out on specific issues. Of course a representative multi-party system would be preferable, but it's not that it's impossible to achieve anything at all.


...multiple changes of ruling party...

I think you don't understand the American political system. At present there are only two parties in terms of realistically getting elected. There is no such thing as a ruling party in the sense of European parliaments. Members of a party are free to vote as they please. Hence Lieberman famously derailing aspects of Obamacare. There is also the fact that both parties in the U.S. have shifted very much to the right the last 40 years. The reality in the U.S. is that even with our so called left leaning party in power in the legislative branch and executive branch no serious environmental accords were negotiated and passed.


Reaching out and talking to people will help.

1. If everyone has 1/2 surviving child then in 150 years, our population will become stable.

2. It’s not transferable because we still need species diversity

3. People will be incentivized with ubi and all their needs taken care of if they agree to #1.

4.stop animal based foods.

5. Return half planet back to nature to reforest and rewind.

6.reverse acidification of oceans.

7. Find ways to restore polar ice caps and bring down planet temperature

8. Reduce fossil fuel dependence. Go nuclear.

9. Protect water.

Nature will rewild. We just need to stop being so successful with procreation because our highest achievement will result in our extinction.

My 2c.


Human populations grow slower the more advanced they are. Most of the first world, including the US, is below replacement fertility rate of 2.1. Without immigration and the like, the US would start contracting. Bringing the third world up to first world is what is needed. That and the other things you said.

[EDIT] Links help: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility


The timescale for sub-replacement fertility to work its magic is too long--on the order of centuries. We are already in an overshoot scenario, and bringing the third world up to first world living standards will only consume more energy and produce more greenhouse gasses. We're in serious trouble and small tweak to birthrates isn't going to fix this.


>>Bringing the third world up to first world is what is needed.

Again, the biggest hurdle to that is politics. There are deep geo political ramifications on any thing that causes change in economic equations at such massive levels.

Mostly its also the will of the people. The world is indeed a giant stack ranking system, and people do indeed believe in ruining anything it takes to score the most points. Most people do believe in things like their civilization, nationalism and racial supremacy.

If you think of it as a whole, space, asteroids and what humans could do if they work together. The very concept of economy feels like something that limits human progress.


Economy won’t go away, limited resources needs to be managed. A market economy, otoh, is just one approach.

I’m pretty sure the current configuration is just a temporary blind spot. Market economy as an optimization algorithm is pretty neat for a limited set of problems. As a means to handle social justice, collective planning, and a bunch of other problems perhaps not so much. While finding better models for that, we shouldn’t throw out the bayby with the bath water.


I appreciate this helpful comment


You can sabotage, initiate preemptive collapse


I've been selling on Amazon for the past few years and there is money still to be made. However the landscape is always changing whether the economy or Amazon's own internal plans so for how long, I'm unsure. It's a great place to easily and quickly find customers, build a brand, and launch a company though.

I helped turn a sinking Amazon small business around last year. They did a little over $2m revenue. One of our promotions became so viral that we had $2000+ in orders with less than $20 in ad spend within a few hours. In this sense, things are always changing but I don't think it has ever been this easy to start a business with so little.

Information changes quickly so you can burn a lot of money on outdated information or pure ignorance. For example, my $2m+ client would probably have failed or were on the verge of failing because they weren't able to adapt to Amazon's increased competition in the last year. They had no idea what keyword ranking was, how to identify keywords, drive traffic, or launch products because they never needed to in the past. Because things change so quickly it is very hard to find experts who maintain their expertise... However once you understand the fundamentals, learn how to surf, riding the Amazon waters gets a lot easier.

If you can learn quickly and adapt, Amazon is still a gold mine, some risk involved, but with great payouts.


Do you have any recommended books or resources by Taleb or another author on how to identify or avoid methodological flaws like p-hacking, understanding correlation vs causation, and more?

I'm currently taking a data science course on Udemy and learning about chi squares, regression, and decision trees, but I'd love more information on best practices especially for experimental design.


Taleb's book The Black Swan has sections comparing heavy-tailed prob. distributions with thin-tailed prob. distributions. The thesis is that you can't tell whether a distribution has fat tails until a fat-tailed event happens (which he calls a black swan). Also goes into the flaws of using induction, the flaws in ascribing causes when there are "silent witnesses", and so on. I don't think there's any specific practical advice. It's more "If you work in economics and other areas, your research may well be doomed." Taleb's advice is often "Don't do this", instead of "Do this".

I'm reading Anti-Fragile now. Can't off the top of my head give you advice on experiment design or statistics. [EDIT] It's more about designing systems that benefit from the unpredictability of the world, instead of building systems that are harmed by unpredictability. [EDIT] It's an important companion to his previous book, because it gives positive advice on how to make decisions in a world that isn't amenable to understanding because of complexity. It effectively gives positive advice, instead of just negative.

There's also SITG that I'd like to read. And there's a "Technical Incerto" which looks like a work-in-progress, but involves concrete statistics.

[edit] He's also tweeting the contents of a new Data Science course he's teaching at NYU. Be warned that Taleb is a bit of an arsehole on Twitter.


> identify or avoid methodological flaws like p-hacking,

It is not trivial to identify them. If it was then there would be no replication crisis. Avoiding is easy in theory: you need decide on math methods in advance. Generate random data before you start to gather real data, and write an R program to process this data. Test it, debug, and when you get real data just feed it to this program. Without changing the program. It is harder in practice though.

> understanding correlation vs causation

> I'd love more information on best practices especially for experimental design

I learnt it with experimental psychology. С. James Goodwin "Research in Psychology"[1], there are some specific psychological topics covered (you might not be interested in ethics of psychological research), there are not a word about chi squares or other math methods you mentioned (data processing is out of the scope of the book), but there are a lot about different experimental setups, with a lot of examples. IIRC there is discussion of p-hacking too.

I believe this book is a good read to anyone interested in design of experimental and/or correlational research methods in general, not just for psychologists.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Research-Psychology-Methods-Design-8E...




There's something that I think is relatively simple - design experiments not to try to prove your hypothesis, but to disprove it. I'm not talking about hypothesis vs null hypothesis here, but the experimental design itself from which the data is collected. There are lots of good examples, and this study happens to be a particularly good one. It basically looked at new topics posted on a forum for e.g. suicidals and compared them to new topics on a forum for e.g. pensioners. The study found a selection of 19 'absolutist' words occurred more frequently on the forums for one group than the other. It should be self evident that there are a practically infinite number of potential confounding variables there.

In some cases confounding variables are impossible to escape, and you simply have to accept the fact that the science is going to be dodgy at best. But this is not really one of those cases. There are trivial and practically free ways you could really try to test the hypothesis that depressed individuals use absolutes more often than non-depressed. For instance, why not give them a prompt and have them write a brief 300 word story? And even better you can secretly prompt the individuals in a given direction with what seems like a free-form prompt to try to further reduce confounding issues.

As an example, "Write a brief persuasive piece with the premise being that green is a more pleasant color than red." It seems open form, but it's not-so-secretly directing people in a broad but common direction to try to give you decent samples of speech where you continue to remove as many confounding variables as possible. Even better in my study design is that, similar to a twin study, it doesn't actually matter if your prompt would inherently nudge people towards using e.g. absolutes more often since you're comparing two individuals in the same 'environment.' What matters is not the absolute (har har) difference, but the relative difference. Suddenly you have an experimental situation where you're controlling for as much as you can outside of the behavior of the individuals themselves. And it would be an extremely cheap study that could even be done remotely.

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From a reader's perspective and not a researcher's there are a million tell tale signs of p-hacking. The biggest one is studies, like this, that intentionally expose themselves to confounding variables. The average phrasal composition of new post topics on any non-general topic is going to radically differ between sites. Not controlling for that is not sloppy. It's far worse than sloppy since there is absolutely no way these researchers could not have been entirely aware of this confounding issue. It was an intentional choice and that deserves scrutiny. Given the current state of social sciences, I am no longer inclined to offer the benefit of the doubt.

Other tell tale signs tend to be large numbers of variables, particularly when they are overly specific. With a large enough set of data you can find some commonality between any group of people. So for instance take a set of e.g. rich individuals and a set of non-rich individuals. If you just start collecting random data that could in no possible way be causal you'll eventually find a subset that, for whatever reason, holds. People who were born on a Wednesday, went to a school with 5 letters in its first name, and have an 'E' in their last name are 92.3% more likely to be wealthy than those that don't! Of course the variables will never be so absurd which can make it sound like implying a possible causal relationship is not so absurd. Again taking this study they chose 19 specific words to be used as their selection of absolutes, down from an original choice of some 300. And their criteria, even in what they acknowledge, is something that deserves substantial scrutiny. The worst part is that in cases like this you're also left just trusting the author that at no point did their selection process involve 'peeking' at whether the words would 'prove' their hypothesis. And once again, I'm no longer inclined to offer the benefit of the doubt in studies of this sort.

And there are countless other signs. Another one, for instance, is seemingly odd exclusions/inclusions in the data. For instance throughout this post I've stated that the study only considered new topics on the forums. And that's true. They chose not to consider responses for no legitimate reason. They state it was done "in the interest of simplicity and interpretability" which not only makes absolutely no sense, but introduces yet another potential confounding variables. Responses and original topics are going to have starkly different word choices.

It's hard to generalize but maybe the easiest way is to remove good faith from the picture, in a way take it as your own little personal null hypothesis. Do the decisions and design taken within a study lend themselves towards (or away) from a connection with good faith - a study confident in its hypothesis and seeking to test it as stringently and rigorously as possible to try to ensure its integrity? Or do the decisions and design within a study seem to indicate individuals more interested in simply obtaining publishable data as is often a means to an end of survival in the current state of academia today? A study more geared towards softly 'prodding' a hypothesis in a way likely to yield something that can be published? In many cases the answer there is immediately evident.


Could this explain why women may be considered more empathic or compassionate considering gender imbalances across societies?


Might make sense. I've noticed a trend where people who come from less privileged backgrounds are more empathetic/compassionate, possibly from experience or out of necessity, whereas their more wealthy/powerful counterparts have the luxury of treating people however they please.


I worked at a job where I loaded up people's cars and trucks and around 25% of people tipped. I always found it funny how the more expensive the car, the less likely they were to tip.


Maybe in part, although I think girls, more so than boys, also tend to be raised to care for others as well as express their own emotions, which would make them better at reading others' emotions too.


Girls certainly do seem to care more about appearing caring and compassionate than the average guy would want to (in contrast, a 'male' upbringing would tend to phrase pro-social norms in terms of things like fairness, a strong character and the inner pride of pursuing a virtuous life), but to imagine that they're more pro-social in general seems like a bit of a stretch! (I mean, it's not like girls can't be just as mean and spiteful to others when they have the inclination and opportunity to be.)


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