...today. Prior to Nest, there wasn't a "smart" thermostat market. Suddenly, everyone realized that the concept at least is pretty cool and Nest sold like hotcakes.
Prior to this release, Honeywell seemed to be playing Blackberry to Nest's iPhone: "we own the serious market. Only kids and geeks would want a 'smart' ${device}". And then suddenly one day everybody wanted one, and the incumbents were blindsided to realize that they didn't understand their market as well as they'd thought.
There's no reason at all that Honeywell shouldn't dominate the smart thermostat market, other than that they couldn't be bothered to. In a couple of years when no homeowner is going to want to buy a new house with a "dumb" thermostat, they'll need to have something attractive in that space. I bet more is riding on the success of this release than you'd think.
not sure the 'smart' thermostat market will grow huge in a reasonable time frame. 'save' money by buying a 250-400$ (+ installation) thermostat when a normal one costs around 40$. This works for some people/situations, but I'd rather just turn the heat down before I go out the door. On top of it all, your thermostat can now be used against you in a court of law, and who knows what companies will do with this information.
Long-term, I imagine the market will largely be driven by new construction and from installation of new HVAC systems in existing buildings. It's much easier to upsell a $250 thermostat as part of a $BIGNUM package than it is to sell one standalone. Rationally the tradeoff is the same either way, but psychologically it works much better.
True, with respect to "smart" thermostats. But Honeywell already owns the thermostat market, and it's much larger than the "smart" thermostat market.