> You could launch 200 rockets the same day if you wanted to.
No, I can launch 200 rockets the same day if I have sufficient rockets, launch pads, reload-capacity on these pads, fuel, and personnel.
We have none of these things, and they cannot be solved by throwing money either. Just one example why not: Launch sites have geographic requirements.
> If you have a really deep pipeline of several, the rockets could also be coming home
A pipeline of what, rockets!?
The fuel-requirements of a spaceship far outstrip it's payload capacity. That's not me saying that, but physics.
So I have to launch M rockets to bring N rockets back home, with M being a multiple of N. And then to bring M home, I have to launch L rockets, with L being a multiple of M. Did anyone say "geometric growth"?
Yes, it does. What is doesn't have: lots of available energy, industrial facilities, storage tanks, or any of the other things required to actually make in-situ methane/LOX production feasible.
You don't have to believe me, the helpful folks at CSS have provided all the numbers and background data:
> Starship uses Methane/LOX because almost all modern rocket engines do
That is simply not true. Starship has been built for Mars and Elon has said it himself that making fuel on mars makes it using methane the only option. It's not some exploratory science craft that can live in the luxury of just importing everything from Earth. It's a relatively very cheap, massive water tower free of NASA's hope-ending bloat that is the only current realistic shot at our species being multi-planetary.
Yes that is true, as shown by the link I provided. Methane/LOX is simply one of the go-to options for liquid fuel rocket engines these days, whether or not these engines are intended to go to Mars or not.
And btw. SpaceX themselves market Startship as a transport vehicle "to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond."https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/
> the only current realistic shot at our species being multi-planetary.
I'm curious: How does building a base on Mars, that is 100% dependent on regular support from Earth to survive, contributes neither resources nor self-sustaining living space to our species, cannot terraform the planet, and cannot serve as a backup in case Earth goes boom, make our species "multi-planetary"?
A multi-planetary species has permanent settlements on more than one planet or moon, that are either self-sustaining, or contributing (resources), or both. These settlements serve a role beyond bragging rights and exploration. A Mars base, insofar as we could currently make it happen, doesn't do that.
If a 15th century nation brought 5 guys to some bare-rock-island in the middle of the Atlantic and left them there with the promise to drop by every now and then to bring them food, that doesn't make them a colonial power.
Other than Mars, the moon is near enough to actually make permanent bases feasible, which could provide a platform for further space exploration (Launching something from 1/6th of earths gravity uses a lot less energy). Luna is near enough to support a colony, including rotating crew, and it actually has a resource that could become useful in the not-so-far future, that could be worth exploiting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helium-3#Moon
Wtf is that "argument"? You proved nothing. Methane is the way because of ferrying all the fuel to mars isn't an option, full stop.
> bla bla because we dont have bases on 10 planets/moons we aren't multiplanetary
With the more urgency we should press on then. Humanity has advanced on other fronts enough that it's becoming a real inconsistency/risk because we can die to nuclear, viral reasons due to tech while still being trapped here
> free of NASA's hope-ending bloat
You actually don't know what you are talking about. Please see SLS's budget per launch/kilo VS SpaceX's offerings. NASA was not going to get much of anything done by itself when it comes to not just science, other than scamming money from congress for things that look good but don't work towards realistic human off-world migration
> Moon
This is part of the NASA-specific not hurrying out when your house is on fire strategy. Yes Spaceship will go to moon, but that's far from the main goal because it's not good enough. The mission to go to the moon is literally more of a PR thing funded by that japanese billionaire for SpaceX
No, I can launch 200 rockets the same day if I have sufficient rockets, launch pads, reload-capacity on these pads, fuel, and personnel.
We have none of these things, and they cannot be solved by throwing money either. Just one example why not: Launch sites have geographic requirements.
> If you have a really deep pipeline of several, the rockets could also be coming home
A pipeline of what, rockets!?
The fuel-requirements of a spaceship far outstrip it's payload capacity. That's not me saying that, but physics.
So I have to launch M rockets to bring N rockets back home, with M being a multiple of N. And then to bring M home, I have to launch L rockets, with L being a multiple of M. Did anyone say "geometric growth"?