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Not stuck, but hardly a runaway success. That graph shows adoption at 40% and increasing, roughly linearly, at maybe 5% a year. At this rate, it's going to be 2040-2050 before we are in any realistic position for an IPv4 switchoff.

So: IPv4 space already pushing $50/address, ~$1bn of unused-but-potentially-routable IPv4 space (240/4) just sitting there, and 25 years to go before it becomes worthless. Any guesses what happens next?




Relevant:

“When will >50% of users access Google over IPv6?”

Community Prediction Dec 21, 2024 at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9558/when-50-of-users-ac...

“When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?”

Community Prediction Sep 23, 2042 at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ip...




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