We are all vulnerable to misinformation that affirms our existing biases or that comes from individuals/organizations that have either previously been reliable sources or we have incorrectly regarded as reliable.
If the Washington Post ran an article that stated that a former NASA scientist believed the rate of climate change was vastly higher than previously anticipated I would probably buy it.
If it later turned out his specialty was Chemistry, he had been fired for using his expertise to make meth, and his research was bunkum I would have to eat crow and watch that publication far more carefully.
On a more realistic note I believed to my chagrin that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and reading of some of the awful crimes of Saddam I thought not going in would be a great act of moral evil as it would mean abandoning the citizens to be victimized by a monster. 21 year old me didn't realize there was no good proof of WMDs, that we would kill half a million of them, and that we might well leave them no better off if our efforts collapsed shortly after we left.
Insofar as what separates the reasonable from the rubes
- A modest amount of accumulated understandings about how history,science, math, stats etc work sufficient to reject obviously untrue statements
- The understanding that everything you understand or think you know ought to be criticized and revised over time in response to new evidence. Valuing truth over authority and conformity.
- An understanding of the common failure modes of logic and reason so that you can recognize bullshit when you see it
- A reasonably strategy to use all of the above to evaluate sources continually to see if they are and remain trustworthy.
If the Washington Post ran an article that stated that a former NASA scientist believed the rate of climate change was vastly higher than previously anticipated I would probably buy it.
If it later turned out his specialty was Chemistry, he had been fired for using his expertise to make meth, and his research was bunkum I would have to eat crow and watch that publication far more carefully.
On a more realistic note I believed to my chagrin that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and reading of some of the awful crimes of Saddam I thought not going in would be a great act of moral evil as it would mean abandoning the citizens to be victimized by a monster. 21 year old me didn't realize there was no good proof of WMDs, that we would kill half a million of them, and that we might well leave them no better off if our efforts collapsed shortly after we left.
Insofar as what separates the reasonable from the rubes
- A modest amount of accumulated understandings about how history,science, math, stats etc work sufficient to reject obviously untrue statements
- The understanding that everything you understand or think you know ought to be criticized and revised over time in response to new evidence. Valuing truth over authority and conformity.
- An understanding of the common failure modes of logic and reason so that you can recognize bullshit when you see it
- A reasonably strategy to use all of the above to evaluate sources continually to see if they are and remain trustworthy.