> As the number of programmers increases, the demand for programmers grows exponentially faster because we can create whatever widgets we want on our phone and sell them for whatever. It’s just infinite leverage at infinite scale for basically free.
Just because software doesn't have the same physical limitations, doesn't mean its usefulness and market value are unlimited. We use software to get physical output, even if only to draw pictures and make sounds. Said another way, there isn't infinite attention or need.
So pay to produce it will likely fall off as the market becomes saturated.
Agreed. If a barista can go from zero to full stack developer in six months and there’s no barrier to entry like lawyers/doctors have, salaries are going to crash. It’s only a matter of when.
Except that software developers mostly create problems for future developers to solve, increasing -- not decreasing -- demand. The barrier of entry has always been low, yet salaries have only gone up.
There may be a limit to software demand but we are far from reaching it. So far the demand appears to be practically infinite. The more software we have, the more we want and the more we are willing to pay for it. (By "we" I mean the total worldwide software market, not just consumers.)
I was about to comment on that same statement. The author seems to be confusing supply with demand.
Simply because you can create and distribute something doesn't mean there is a market for it. If you could, we would see a lot more professional poets.
Just because software doesn't have the same physical limitations, doesn't mean its usefulness and market value are unlimited. We use software to get physical output, even if only to draw pictures and make sounds. Said another way, there isn't infinite attention or need.
So pay to produce it will likely fall off as the market becomes saturated.