What bothers me more than anything else is the unpredictability of it all. We don't know how this thing will pan out. There is way too much conflicting data about it. Will it burn out and mutate into less lethal strains? Will we get it in the waves? Will it be a seasonal thing we have to live with? Will there be a cure or better, a vaccine? Or will it be like the common cold with no vaccine?.
We don't know. And without that knowledge, you can't plan for the future. I wouldn't want to invest money into any business right now. Who knows what shape we will be in in 12 months time?
COVID thankfully is less likely to mutate than other types of viruses, so once COVID-19 is gone, it will most likely stay gone. However, gone here meaning world wide.
How much the world can safely open up businesses is directly correlated to testing. Eg, it's easy for schools to open up when they require testing every day for every student when they come in. On the other extreme, it's hard for schools to open up when there is no testing being done.
A second and even third wave is highly likely without proper testing. It will take longer for a vaccine to be created than we can shelter in place, unless we get very lucky.
The alternative is a country does not shelter in place, and it builds up herd immunity. A lot of people will die. It's not the ideal option.
At the end of the day it comes down to tests. The more we have the more the economy can open up.
We don't know. And without that knowledge, you can't plan for the future. I wouldn't want to invest money into any business right now. Who knows what shape we will be in in 12 months time?