I used to think that too. The buildings and are still there, and the workers can come back easily enough. Unlike, say, a hurricane, we should be able to just start things up.
However, I think two factors make that unlikely now. One is the inadequate, spotty government intervention. They should have strongly pressured banks and landlords to just extend mortgages and defer or suspend rent. They should have encouraged utilities and other large, stable suppliers to stretch bills. And then they should have paid workers to mostly stay the fuck home.
The other is inadequate, spotty government response to the virus. When you look at SF and Seattle vs NYC, it's pretty obvious that strong, early government intervention can make a huge difference. And when you look at S Korea vs the US, it's even clearer. If we'd had good test-and-trace capacity ready, or if we'd locked down while quickly developing it, we'd be done with things by now. But governmental half-assing of this means that we're looking at a much larger impact than is necessary.
I think the first failure means that both businesses and consumer spending will be slow to recover once the crisis is past. And I think the second failure means it's going to be a much larger crisis. So I'm now expecting a much more significant reaction than I was 6 weeks ago.
I agree with this. The failure to contain the spread is the problem and the government wasting all this time means we could have had much better containment by now.
However, I think two factors make that unlikely now. One is the inadequate, spotty government intervention. They should have strongly pressured banks and landlords to just extend mortgages and defer or suspend rent. They should have encouraged utilities and other large, stable suppliers to stretch bills. And then they should have paid workers to mostly stay the fuck home.
The other is inadequate, spotty government response to the virus. When you look at SF and Seattle vs NYC, it's pretty obvious that strong, early government intervention can make a huge difference. And when you look at S Korea vs the US, it's even clearer. If we'd had good test-and-trace capacity ready, or if we'd locked down while quickly developing it, we'd be done with things by now. But governmental half-assing of this means that we're looking at a much larger impact than is necessary.
I think the first failure means that both businesses and consumer spending will be slow to recover once the crisis is past. And I think the second failure means it's going to be a much larger crisis. So I'm now expecting a much more significant reaction than I was 6 weeks ago.