The big advantage of Flash is that you write once and it runs everywhere. Anything that leaves it up to browsers to implement will not be able to boast that any time soon.
Flash doesn't run on iPhone and it is often slow and buggy on anything but Windows. I bet that Apple, Google and browser developers will support standards-based alternatives. We can see this happening in the original post.
iPhone is some tiny fraction of a percent of the overall market, and I'd be surprised if it ever gets to 1%. I'd be more surprised if it does so without flash support.
Flash works fine on OSX in my experience. A good portion of our startup depends on it, and my cofounders code on Macbooks.
For those of you trying bomomo.com through the iPhone, it is intriguing - it looks like a flash-based application (albeit non-interactive).
If only Apple were to create some hook for WebKit/Sproutcore that allowed iPhone web applications to do something with finger touches (this is difficult because of the pinch gestures require mouse/t-pad tracking - but maybe they can have a JS API hook to toggle/disable pinching for webapps)
Come on, iPhone will go fine, nothing can stop it. Only Android has some chances, but nobody knows when they will appear. It's a future, man, and it will do without Flash support.
The iPhone can be wildly successful and still be less than 1% of the browser market - a market that includes every desktop and laptop computer as well as every other smart phone.
Well, nothing has to stop it. It has serious inherent limitations. Tiny screen, being tethered to one carrier, etc. It could become the most wildly successful phone on the market and still be only 10% of phone-based browsing, and phone-based browsing, having those limitations, could only be 10% of all browsing.
